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The effect of European and global uncertainty on stock returns of travel and leisure companies

Author

Listed:
  • Oguz Ersan

    (Kadir Has University, Turkey)

  • Sagi Akron

    (University of Haifa, Israel)

  • Ender Demir

    (Istanbul Medeniyet University, Turkey)

Abstract

This article aims to evaluate the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the STOXX Europe 600 Travel & Leisure Price Index by utilizing a monthly data set for 20 years through 1997–2016. It is found that both the European and the global EPU have significant negative effects on the stock returns of travel and leisure companies. We demonstrate the significantly superior forecasting power of EPU measures on tourism and leisure stock returns, relative to a rather weak forecasting power of various macroeconomic variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Oguz Ersan & Sagi Akron & Ender Demir, 2019. "The effect of European and global uncertainty on stock returns of travel and leisure companies," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(1), pages 51-66, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:25:y:2019:i:1:p:51-66
    DOI: 10.1177/1354816618792398
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chandan Sharma, 2021. "Testing the asymmetric effects of the economic policy uncertainty on the tourism demand in India," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 867-873, June.
    2. Yonghong Jiang & Gengyu Tian & Yiqi Wu & Bin Mo, 2022. "Impacts of geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainty on Chinese tourism‐listed company stock," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 320-333, January.
    3. Xiang Lin & Martin Thomas Falk, 2022. "Nordic stock market performance of the travel and leisure industry during the first wave of Covid-19 pandemic," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(5), pages 1240-1257, August.
    4. James E Payne & Nicholas Apergis, 2022. "The influence of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on US citizens overseas air passenger travel by regional destination," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(5), pages 1333-1341, August.
    5. Chen, Juan & Ma, Feng & Qiu, Xuemei & Li, Tao, 2023. "The role of categorical EPU indices in predicting stock-market returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 365-378.
    6. Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2021. "The persistence of economic policy uncertainty: Evidence of long range dependence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 568(C).
    7. Wangfang Xu & Wenjia Rao & Longbao Wei & Qianqian Wang, 2023. "A Normalized Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index from Unsupervised Machine Learning," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-10, July.
    8. James E Payne & Saban Nazlioglu & Andrea Mervar, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and international tourist arrivals: A disaggregated analysis of the Croatian Adriatic coast," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(4), pages 986-1004, June.
    9. OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Nurudeen Abu & Tayo P. Ogundunmade, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty in G7 countries: evidence of long-range dependence and cointegration," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 541-556, May.
    10. Han Liu & Ying Liu & Yonglian Wang, 2021. "Exploring the influence of economic policy uncertainty on the relationship between tourism and economic growth with an MF-VAR model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 1081-1100, August.
    11. Das, Debojyoti & Dutta, Anupam & Bhadra, Amit & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Role of presidential uncertainties on the hotel industry," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    12. Mudassar Hasan & Muhammad Abubakr Naeem & Muhammad Arif & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Safwan Mohd Nor, 2020. "Geopolitical Risk and Tourism Stocks of Emerging Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-21, November.
    13. Dai, Peng-Fei & Xiong, Xiong & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2021. "A global economic policy uncertainty index from principal component analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    14. Conrado Diego García-Gómez & Ender Demir & Ming-Hsiang Chen & José María Díez-Esteban, 2022. "Understanding the effects of economic policy uncertainty on US tourism firms’ performance," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(5), pages 1174-1192, August.
    15. Liu, Yan & Cheng, Xian & Liao, Stephen Shaoyi & Yang, Feng, 2023. "The impact of COVID-19 on the tourism and hospitality Industry: Evidence from international stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    16. Farid Irani & Salih Katircioglu & Korhan K. Gokmenoglu, 2021. "Effects of Business and Finance Conditions on Tourism Firms’ Financial Performances: Evidence From Major Tourist Destinations," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, August.
    17. Francisco Jareño & Ana Escribano & M Pilar Torres, 2022. "Analysis of stock returns of main European service and tourism companies," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(5), pages 1280-1310, August.

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