IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/sagope/v12y2022i2p21582440221085011.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investigation of Balance of Payment Constrained Growth Model: The Impact of Export Growth, Capital Flows, and Real Effective Exchange Rate on Growth of the UK

Author

Listed:
  • Musa Esuwa Shingil
  • Huseyin Ozdeser
  • Andisheh Saliminezhad

Abstract

The present article employs balance of payment constrained growth model (BPCG) to investigate the relevance of exports, capital movements as well as relative prices on growth performance of the United Kingdom from 1970 to 2018. It makes use of autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) for the analysis. It was found that the innovative BPCG model is suitable for the explanation of growth experience of the UK. Accordingly, Keynesian mechanism-income plays the dominant adjustment role in restoring equilibrium. More interestingly, the inclusion of relative prices and capital flows in the balance of payments constraint model tends to influence the levels of output but they do not exert any substantial effect on the balance of payment equilibrium growth rate of the UK. In conclusion, the prosperity and growth of the world (OECD countries) and the expansion of exports would help in guaranteeing the steady-state of the UK economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Musa Esuwa Shingil & Huseyin Ozdeser & Andisheh Saliminezhad, 2022. "Investigation of Balance of Payment Constrained Growth Model: The Impact of Export Growth, Capital Flows, and Real Effective Exchange Rate on Growth of the UK," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:sagope:v:12:y:2022:i:2:p:21582440221085011
    DOI: 10.1177/21582440221085011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/21582440221085011
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/21582440221085011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ribeiro, Rafael S.M. & McCombie, John S.L. & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2020. "Does real exchange rate undervaluation really promote economic growth?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 408-417.
    2. João P. Romerojpromero & Gustavo Britto, 2017. "Increasing returns to scale, technological catch-up and research intensity: endogenising the Verdoorn coefficient," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 391-412.
    3. Kvedaras, Virmantas & Garcimartín, Carlos & Astudillo, Jhonatan, 2020. "Balance-of-Payments constrained growth dynamics: An empirical investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 232-244.
    4. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    5. Luciano Boggio & Laura Barbieri, 2017. "International competitiveness in post-Keynesian growth theory: controversies and empirical evidence," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 25-47.
    6. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    7. John S.L. McCombie, 2011. "Criticisms and defences of the balance-of-payments constrained growth model: some old, some new," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 353-392.
    8. Mark Setterfield, 2012. "The Remarkable Durability of Thirlwall’s Law," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 3, pages 83-110, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    10. Rapetti Martin, 2020. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: A Survey," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 1-054, December.
    11. A. P. Thirlwall, 2015. "A Model of Regional Growth Rate Differences on Kaldorian Lines," Palgrave Studies in the History of Economic Thought, in: Essays on Keynesian and Kaldorian Economics, chapter 12, pages 286-301, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. Amelia Santos-Paulino & A.P. Thirlwall, 2004. "Trade Liberalisation And Economic Performance In Developing Countries - Introduction," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages 1-3, February.
    13. Rafael Saulo Marques Ribeiro & John S.L. McCombie & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2017. "A reconciliation proposal of demand-driven growth models in open economies," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(2), pages 226-244, May.
    14. Amitava Krishna Dutt, 2002. "Thirlwall’s Law and Uneven Development," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 367-390, March.
    15. Alexander Bilson Darku, 2012. "The Balance of Payments Constraint Growth Model and the Effect of Trade Liberalization on the Trade Balance and Income Growth in Ghana," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 14(1), pages 37-66.
    16. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1999. "Mexico's Economic Growth and the Balance of Payments Constraint: A cointegration analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 149-159.
    17. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2021. "Thirlwall’s law, uneven development, and income distribution," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 592-611, July.
    18. José A. Alonso & Carlos Garcimartín, 1998. "A New Approach to Balance-of-Payments Constraint: Some Empirical Evidence," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 259-282, December.
    19. Ayşe Özden Birkan, 2017. "Technological structure of trade and BOP-constrained growth in Turkey," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(5), pages 509-533, July.
    20. Gustavo Bhering & Franklin Serrano & Fabio Freitas, 2019. "Thirlwall's law, external debt sustainability, and the balance-of-payments-constrained level and growth rates of output," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 7(4), pages 486-497, October.
    21. João P. Romero & John S. L. McCombie, 2018. "Thirlwall's law and the specification of export and import functions," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(2), pages 366-395, May.
    22. John S.L. McCombie, 1997. "On the Empirics of Balance-Of-Payments–Constrained Growth," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 345-375, March.
    23. Thirlwall, Anthony P & Hussain, Mohammed Nureldin, 1982. "The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences between Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 498-510, November.
    24. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    25. Soukiazis, Elias & Cerqueira, Pedro André & Antunes, Micaela, 2014. "Explaining Italy's economic growth: A balance-of-payments approach with internal and external imbalances and non-neutral relative prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 334-341.
    26. Jonathan Perraton, 2003. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth and Developing Countries: An examination of Thirlwall's hypothesis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-22.
    27. Jani Bekó, 2003. "The validity of the balance-of-payments-constrained growth model for a small economy in transition: the case of Slovenia," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 69-93.
    28. Bottega, Ana & Romero, João P., 2021. "Innovation, export performance and trade elasticities across different sectors," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 174-184.
    29. J. S. L. McCombie & A. P. Thirlwall, 1997. "The Dynamic Harrod Foreign Trade Multiplier and the Demand-orientated Approach to Economic Growth: an Evaluation," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 5-26.
    30. Mohsen Bahmani & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2013. "Empirical tests of the Marshall‐Lerner condition: a literature review," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(3), pages 411-443, July.
    31. Amelia Santos-Paulino & A. P. Thirlwall, 2004. "The impact of trade liberalisation on exports, imports and the balance of payments of developing countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages 50-72, February.
    32. A.P. Thirlwall, 2019. "Thoughts on balance-of-paymentsconstrained growth after 40 years," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 7(4), pages 554-567, October.
    33. Frederico Gonzaga Jayme Jr., 2003. "Balance-of-payments-constrained economic growth in Brazil," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 23(1), pages 63-86.
    34. Mohsen Bahmani & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2013. "Empirical tests of the Marshall-Lerner condition: a literature review," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(3), pages 411-443, May.
    35. Yohanna Panshak & Irfan Civcir & Hüseyin Ozdeser, 2019. "Technology Gap and the Role of National Innovation System in a Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: Empirical Evidence From Nigeria," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(1), pages 21582440198, February.
    36. Juan Carlos Moreno‐Brid, 2003. "Capital Flows, Interest Payments and the Balance‐of‐Payments Constrained Growth Model: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2‐3), pages 346-365, May.
    37. Florencia Médici & Demian Tupac Panigo, 2015. "Balance-of-payment-constrained growth in unbalanced productive structures: disregarded terms of trade negative effects," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 192-217, October.
    38. José A. Alonso & Carlos Garcimartín, 1999. "A New Approach to Balance-of-Payments Constraint: Some Empirical Evidence," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 21(2), pages 259-282, January.
    39. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-125, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.
    2. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 2012. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 1, pages 11-49, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. A. P. Thirlwall, 2013. "Economic Growth in an Open Developing Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15208.
    4. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2021. "Thirlwall's law: Binding-constraint or centre-of-gravity? A possible Kaleckian solution," Department of Economics University of Siena 853, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    5. Sebastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2022. "The slowing of growth in France: an interpretation based on Thirlwall’s law," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 100-129, January.
    6. Robert A. Blecker, 2009. "Long-Run Growth in Open Economies: Export-Led Cumulative Causation or a Balance-of-Payments Constraint?," Working Papers 2009-23, American University, Department of Economics.
    7. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil & Oreiro, José, 2021. "A song of ice and fire: Competitiveness in an export-led growing economy," MPRA Paper 109821, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Yohanna Panshak & Irfan Civcir & Hüseyin Ozdeser, 2019. "Technology Gap and the Role of National Innovation System in a Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: Empirical Evidence From Nigeria," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(1), pages 21582440198, February.
    9. Civcir, Irfan & Panshak, Yohanna & Ozdeser, Huseyin, 2021. "A multi-sectoral balance of payments constrained growth approach with intermediate imports: The case of Nigeria," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 240-250.
    10. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2007. "A structural economic dynamics approach to balance-of-payments-constrained growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(5), pages 755-774, September.
    11. F.N. Chimphamba & M.K. Wilson, 2022. "The balance-of-payments-constrained growth model for Malawi: Evidence from the bounds testing approach," Journal of Economic Policy and Management Issues, JEPMI, vol. 1(1), pages 50-61.
    12. Penelope Pacheco-Lopez & A.P. Thirlwall, 2005. "Trade Liberalisation, the Balance of Payments and Growth in Latin America," Studies in Economics 0506, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    13. Kvedaras, Virmantas & Garcimartín, Carlos & Astudillo, Jhonatan, 2020. "Balance-of-Payments constrained growth dynamics: An empirical investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 232-244.
    14. Irfan Civcir & M. Emir Yücel, 2020. "Effects of Internal and External Imbalances and the Role of Relative Prices on Economic Growth: Evidence From Turkey," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(2), pages 21582440209, June.
    15. Penelope Pacheco-López, 2004. "Does The Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Exports, Imports, the Balance of Payments and Growth: the Case of Mexico," Studies in Economics 0401, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    16. Nell, Kevin, 2023. "Inflation and growth in developing economies: A tribute to Professor Thirlwall," MPRA Paper 118757, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Sep 2023.
    17. Bilge Erten, 2010. "Industrial Upgrading and Export Diversification: A Comparative Analysis of Economic Policies in Turkey and Malaysia," Working Papers id:2778, eSocialSciences.
    18. Ahmad Jafari Samimi & Ramezan Hosseinzadeh, 2011. "Foreign Trade and Economic Growth: Evidence of Thirlwall’s Law in Iran," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 2(2), pages 81-88.
    19. Thomas H. W. Ziesemer, 2023. "Semi-endogenous growth in a non-Walrasian DSEM for Brazil: estimation and simulation of changes in foreign income, human capital, R&D, and terms of trade," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1147-1183, April.
    20. Arslan Razmi, 2005. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: The Case of India," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2005-05, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:sagope:v:12:y:2022:i:2:p:21582440221085011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.