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Terrorist Success in Hostage-Taking Incidents

Author

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  • Todd Sandler

    (Department of Economics, Iowa State University)

  • John L. Scott

    (Department of Economics, University of South Carolina)

Abstract

This article identifies factors that help explain terrorist success in hostage-taking events. Two measures of success are examined: logistical success and negotiation success. In the empirical estimations, we regress the log of the odds ratio against various sets of explanatory variables. For both sets of models, the statistical results are robust to changes in the explanatory variables. Our results are compared with propositions derived from the economic theory of bargaining; these propositions are partly supported by our findings. The article also sketches the choice-theoretic model faced by a terrorist during the planning and negotiating stages of a hostage mission.

Suggested Citation

  • Todd Sandler & John L. Scott, 1987. "Terrorist Success in Hostage-Taking Incidents," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(1), pages 35-53, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:31:y:1987:i:1:p:35-53
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002787031001003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Guikema, Seth D. & Aven, Terje, 2010. "Assessing risk from intelligent attacks: A perspective on approaches," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(5), pages 478-483.
    2. Margaret A. Wilson, 2000. "Toward a Model of Terrorist Behavior in Hostage-Taking Incidents," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 44(4), pages 403-424, August.
    3. Sean P. O'brien, 1996. "Foreign Policy Crises and the Resort to Terrorism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 40(2), pages 320-335, June.
    4. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger, "undated". "Terrorism: Deterrence May Backfire," IEW - Working Papers 136, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    5. Detotto Claudio & Vannini Marco & McCannon Bryan C., 2014. "Understanding Ransom Kidnappings and Their Duration," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 1-23, July.
    6. Alexander Fink & Mark Pingle, 2014. "Kidnap insurance and its impact on kidnapping outcomes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 481-499, September.
    7. Sylvain Baumann, 2018. "Protection, Technological Transfer and Alliance against Terrorist Conflict," Post-Print hal-02949083, HAL.
    8. Sandler, Todd & Enders, Walter, 2004. "An economic perspective on transnational terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-316, June.
    9. Aslihan Saygili, 2019. "Concessions or Crackdown: How Regime Stability Shapes Democratic Responses to Hostage taking Terrorism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(2), pages 468-501, February.
    10. repec:ebl:ecbull:eb-09-00572 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Sylvain Baumann, 2009. "Protection and technology transfer against a terrorist threat," Post-Print hal-02311532, HAL.
    12. Peter J. Phillips & Gabriela Pohl, 2017. "Terrorist choice: a stochastic dominance and prospect theory analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 150-164, March.
    13. Sylvain Baumann & Pedro Lages dos santos & Samir Amine & Fabrice Valognes, 2009. "Protection, Alliance and Negotiation against a Terrorist Threat," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 3214-3221.
    14. Terje Aven & Seth Guikema, 2015. "On the Concept and Definition of Terrorism Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(12), pages 2162-2171, December.
    15. Brandt, Patrick T. & Sandler, Todd, 2009. "Hostage taking: Understanding terrorism event dynamics," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 758-778, September.
    16. Dwight Lee & Todd Sandler, 1989. "On the optimal retaliation against terrorists: The paid-rider option," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 141-152, May.
    17. Andrew Samuel & Seth D. Guikema, 2012. "Resource Allocation for Homeland Defense: Dealing with the Team Effect," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 238-252, September.
    18. Prabal Roy Chowdhury & Jaideep Roy, 2011. "Aid in times of terror," Discussion Papers 11-08, Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi.
    19. Aparicio, Juan P. & Jetter, Michael, 2020. "Captivating News in Colombia," IZA Discussion Papers 13834, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Edward F. Mickolus, 1987. "Comment — Terrorists, Governments, and Numbers," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(1), pages 54-62, March.
    21. Brandt, Patrick T. & George, Justin & Sandler, Todd, 2016. "Why concessions should not be made to terrorist kidnappers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 41-52.
    22. Olaf J. de Groot & Matthew D. Rablen & Anja Shortland, 2012. "Barrgh-gaining with Somali Pirates," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 74, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

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