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The Labor Market Effects of Refugee Waves: Reconciling Conflicting Results

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  • Michael A. Clemens
  • Jennifer Hunt

Abstract

Studies have reached conflicting conclusions regarding the labor market effects of exogenous refugee waves such as the Mariel Boatlift in Miami. The authors show that contradictory findings on the effects of the Mariel Boatlift can be explained by a large difference in the pre- and post-Boatlift racial composition in certain very small subsamples of workers in the Current Population Survey. This compositional change is specific to Miami and unrelated to the Boatlift. They also show that conflicting findings on the labor market effects of other important refugee waves are caused by spurious correlation in some analyses between the instrument and the endogenous variable, introduced by applying a common divisor to both. As a whole, the evidence from refugee waves reinforces the existing consensus that the impact of immigration on average native-born workers is small, and it fails to substantiate claims of large detrimental effects on workers with less than a high school education.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael A. Clemens & Jennifer Hunt, 2019. "The Labor Market Effects of Refugee Waves: Reconciling Conflicting Results," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 72(4), pages 818-857, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ilrrev:v:72:y:2019:i:4:p:818-857
    DOI: 10.1177/0019793918824597
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    immigrant effects on employment; immigrants; immigration; immigration and labor markets; instrumental variables;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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