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Economics, Emissions Scenarios and the Work of the IPCC

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  • Ian Castles
  • David Henderson

Abstract

This article restates and extends our critique of the economic and statistical work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including in particular the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We respond to the article in the previous issue of Energy and Environment , in which 15 authors associated with the SRES argued against the case we had made there. We give reasons for rejecting their view that market exchange rates (MERs) should be used in deriving cross-country measures of economic growth, and note that in its handling of this and related issues they and others involved in the IPCC process are not professionally representative. We show how the mistaken use of MER-based comparisons, together with questionable assumptions about ‘closing the gap’ between rich countries and poor, have imparted an upward bias to projections of economic growth in developing countries, and hence to projections of total world emissions. We list actions that could be taken now, in the context of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Review which is about to be launched, to set the economic and statistical aspects of the Review on a sounder basis. We argue that it is high time for ministries of economics and finance to inform themselves about the IPCC process and to become involved in it.

Suggested Citation

  • Ian Castles & David Henderson, 2003. "Economics, Emissions Scenarios and the Work of the IPCC," Energy & Environment, , vol. 14(4), pages 415-435, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:engenv:v:14:y:2003:i:4:p:415-435
    DOI: 10.1260/095830503322364430
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    1. Chen, Yi Vivian & Heston, Alan & Lipsey, Robert, 2000. "International and interarea comparisons of income, output and prices," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 363-364, December.
    2. Alan Heston & Robert E. Lipsey, 1999. "Introduction to "International and Interarea Comparisons of Income, Output, and Prices"," NBER Chapters, in: International and Interarea Comparisons of Income, Output, and Prices, pages 1-9, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pant, Hom M. & Fisher, Brian S., 2007. "Alternative measures of output in global economic-environmental models: Purchasing power parity or market exchange rates? -- Comment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 375-389, May.
    2. Warwick McKibbin & David Pearce & Alison Stegman, 2004. "Long Run Projections For Climate Change Scenarios," CAMA Working Papers 2004-01, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Calzadilla, Alvaro, 2010. "Global income distribution and poverty: Implications from the IPCC SRES scenarios," Kiel Working Papers 1664, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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