Fiscal Theory of Price Level: A Panel Data Analysis for selected Saarc Countries
AbstractI compare the two alternative paradigms of business cycles for the case of the Romanian eThis paper examines the validity of fiscal theory of price level in the five selected SAARC countries, namely Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka by using panel data analysis for the period 1990-2009. Specification tests, i.e. F-test and Hausman test indicate that the fixed effect model can be considered as the best model to examine the relationship between budget deficit and price level. Empirical findings also show that budget deficit is significant and negatively related with the price level in pooled least square, while fixed and random effect model explain that the budget deficit has no role in explaining the given scenario. The GDP per capita is positively and highly significant in all of the models, while openness is explaining its role in reducing the price level in the specified set of countries. The additional robustness tests are also performed to test the validity of results of the model. After removing the variable, i.e. GDPPC from the fixed effect model, the budget deficit (BD) significantly impacts on the SAARC price level. Our findings substantiate that fiscal theory of price level is not valid in the selected SAARC countries. This study opens new dimensions for policy planners, government agencies, NGO’s and other donor agencies working in the SAARC region.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Journal for Economic Forecasting.
Volume (Year): (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Casa Academiei, Calea 13, Septembrie nr.13, sector 5, Bucureşti 761172
Phone: 004 021 3188148
Fax: 004 021 3188148
Web page: http://www.ipe.ro/
More information through EDIRC
budget deficit; price level; trade openness; gross domestic product per capita; panel data; SAARC countries;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Favero, Carlo A & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2004.
"Inflation Targeting and Debt: Lessons from Brazil,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4376, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Chryssi Giannitsarou & Andrew Scott, 2006.
"Inflation Implications of Rising Government Debt,"
NBER Working Papers
12654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- S. Adnan & H.A.S. BUKHARI & Safdar Ullah KHAN, 2008.
"Does Volatility In Government Borrowing Leads To Higher Inflation? Evidence From Pakistan,"
Journal of Applied Economic Sciences,
Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(3(5)_Fall), pages 187-202.
- Haider, Adnan & Khan, Safdar Ullah, 2007. "Does Volatility in Government Borrowing Leads to Higher Inflation? Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 17008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hausman, Jerry A, 1978.
"Specification Tests in Econometrics,"
Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1251-71, November.
- Kalbe Abbas & Tariq Mahmood, 1994. "Fiscal Effects of Monetary Seigniorage: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1113-1119.
- Marco Terrones & Luis CatÃ£o, 2001. "Fiscal Deficits and Inflation: A New Look at the Emerging Market Evidence," IMF Working Papers 01/74, International Monetary Fund.
- Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 1998.
"Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1772, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 2001. "Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1221-1238, December.
- Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 1998. "Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?," NBER Working Papers 6471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hasan Ersel & Fatih Ãzatay, 2008. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(6), pages 38-51, November.
- Attiya Y. Javid & Umaima Arif & Abdul Sattar, 2008. "Testing the Fiscal Theory of Price Level in Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 763-778.
- Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
- Alessandro Piergallini, 2006. "Fiscal Deficits, Taylor Rules, and Price Dynamics," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 34(4), pages 395-403, December.
- Bencivenga, Valerie R & Smith, Bruce D, 1992.
"Deficits, Inflation, and the Banking System in Developing Countries: The Optimal Degree of Financial Repression,"
Oxford Economic Papers,
Oxford University Press, vol. 44(4), pages 767-90, October.
- Bencivenga, V.R. & Smith, B.D., 1990. "Deficits, Inflation, And The Banking System In Developing Countries: The Optimal Degree Of Financial Repression," RCER Working Papers 214, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Rother, Philipp, 2004. "Fiscal policy and inflation volatility," Working Paper Series 0317, European Central Bank.
- Ayca Tekin-Koru & Erdal Ozmen, 2003. "Budget deficits, money growth and inflation: the Turkish evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 591-596.
- Abbas Alavirad & Sanhita Athawale, 2005. "The impact of the budget deficit on inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 29(1), pages 37-49, 03.
- Yannick Lucotte, 2009. "Central Bank Independence and Budget Deficits in Developing Countries: New Evidence from Panel Data Analysis," Post-Print halshs-00447398, HAL.
- Chhibber, Ajay & Cottani, Joaquin & Firuzabadi, Reza & Walton, Michael, 1989. "Inflation, price controls, and fiscal adjustment in Zimbabwe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 192, The World Bank.
- Bloise, Gaetano, 2005. "A remark on the fiscal theory of price determination," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1037-1052, December.
- Jalil, Abdul & Tariq, Rabbia & Bibi, Nazia, 2014. "Fiscal deficit and inflation: New evidences from Pakistan using a bounds testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 120-126.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Corina Saman).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.