Testing the Fiscal Theory of Price Level in Case of Pakistan
AbstractThe study tests the fiscal theory of price determination for Pakistan’s economy for the period 1970 to 2007. The evidence is less clear cut to infer that authorities are following a certain type of regime fiscal dominant or monetary dominant during the sample period. The liabilities responses negatively to the innovation in surpluses, that is in the subsequent period the liabilities decreases in face of increase in surplus. This characterises monetary dominant regime, the events that give rise to surplus innovation are likely to persist causing the rise in the future surpluses and surpluses pay-off some of the debt causing the fall in the liabilities. By analysing the behaviour of nominal GDP, an innovation in surplus reduces nominal income and decreases the level of debt in the subsequent periods, this analysis also confirms the Ricardian analysis. On the other hand, the study finds that, as predicted by the fiscal theory of price determination, the occurrence of wealth effects of changes in nominal public debt may pass through to prices by increasing inflation variability in case of Pakistan. The implication that comes out of this study is that nominal public liabilities, as reflected either in money growth or in nominal public debt, matter for price stability in case of Pakistan. The authorities may be following different regimes for different time periods during the 1970-2007.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in its journal The Pakistan Development Review.
Volume (Year): 47 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Fiscal Theory of Price Level; VAR; Fiscal Policy; Monetary Policy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
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- Nawaz, Muhammad & Iqbal, Muhammad Mazhar & Ali, Amanat & Zaman, Khalid, 2012. "Fiscal Theory of Price Level: A Panel Data Analysis for selected Saarc Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 152-170, September.
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