Scenarios of the Romanian GDP Evolution With Neural Models
AbstractThis paper aims to explore the nonlinear relation between investments and GDP. The method of neural network is used to construct two nonlinear models of GDP in relation to domestic investments, foreign direct investments and real interest rate. The results show that the two neural models present good performance measures on the dataset. The improved forecast accuracy may be capturing more fundamental non-linearities between investment and financial variables and the real output for a longer horizon.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.
Volume (Year): (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Casa Academiei, Calea 13, Septembrie nr.13, sector 5, Bucureşti 761172
Phone: 004 021 3188148
Fax: 004 021 3188148
Web page: http://www.ipe.ro/
More information through EDIRC
investment; simulation; GDP; neural networks;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Zhang, Guoqiang & Eddy Patuwo, B. & Y. Hu, Michael, 1998. "Forecasting with artificial neural networks:: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-62, March.
- Zeira, Joseph, 1990. "Cost uncertainty and the rate of investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 53-63, February.
- Lee, Tae-Hwy & White, Halbert & Granger, Clive W. J., 1993.
"Testing for neglected nonlinearity in time series models : A comparison of neural network methods and alternative tests,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 269-290, April.
- Tom Doan, . "REGWHITENNTEST: RATS procedure to perform White neural network test on regression," Statistical Software Components RTS00183, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "REGRESET: RATS procedure to perform Ramsey RESET test on regression," Statistical Software Components RTS00181, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tkacz, Greg, 2001. "Neural network forecasting of Canadian GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 57-69.
- Norman R. Swanson & Halbert White, 1995.
"A Model Selection Approach to Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Linear Models and Artificial Neural Networks,"
- Norman R. Swanson & Halbert White, 1997. "A Model Selection Approach To Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Linear Models And Artificial Neural Networks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 540-550, November.
- Swanson, N.R. & White, H., 1995. "A Models Selection Approach to Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Linear Models and Artificial Neural Networks," Papers 04-95-12, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Andrei, Dalina Maria, 2012. "Foreign Direct Investments in Romania. A Structural and Dynamic View," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 129-146, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Corina Saman).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.