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Scenarios of the Romanian GDP Evolution With Neural Models

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Author Info

  • Saman, Corina

    ()
    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Centre for Macroeconomic Modeling, NIER, Romanian Academy.)

Abstract

This paper aims to explore the nonlinear relation between investments and GDP. The method of neural network is used to construct two nonlinear models of GDP in relation to domestic investments, foreign direct investments and real interest rate. The results show that the two neural models present good performance measures on the dataset. The improved forecast accuracy may be capturing more fundamental non-linearities between investment and financial variables and the real output for a longer horizon.

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File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef4_11/rjef4_2011p129-140.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

Volume (Year): (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 129-140

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Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2011:i:4:p:129-140

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Related research

Keywords: investment; simulation; GDP; neural networks;

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References

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  1. Lee, Tae-Hwy & White, Halbert & Granger, Clive W. J., 1993. "Testing for neglected nonlinearity in time series models : A comparison of neural network methods and alternative tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 269-290, April.
  2. Ghysels, E. & Granger, C.W.J. & Siklos, P.L., 1995. "Is Seasonal Adjustment a Linear or Nonlinear Data Filtring Process," Cahiers de recherche 9517, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  3. Norman R. Swanson & Halbert White, 1997. "A Model Selection Approach To Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Linear Models And Artificial Neural Networks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 540-550, November.
  4. Zeira, Joseph, 1990. "Cost uncertainty and the rate of investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 53-63, February.
  5. Zhang, Guoqiang & Eddy Patuwo, B. & Y. Hu, Michael, 1998. "Forecasting with artificial neural networks:: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-62, March.
  6. Tkacz, Greg, 2001. "Neural network forecasting of Canadian GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 57-69.
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Cited by:
  1. Andrei, Dalina Maria, 2012. "Foreign Direct Investments in Romania. A Structural and Dynamic View," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 129-146, December.

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