IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v11y2023i15p3351-d1207297.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Generalization of the Grey Lotka–Volterra Model and Application to GDP, Export, Import and Investment for the European Union

Author

Listed:
  • Mihaela Sterpu

    (Department of Mathematics, University of Craiova, 200585 Craiova, Romania)

  • Carmen Rocșoreanu

    (Department of Statistics and Economic Informatics, University of Craiova, 200585 Craiova, Romania)

  • Georgeta Soava

    (Department of Statistics and Economic Informatics, University of Craiova, 200585 Craiova, Romania)

  • Anca Mehedintu

    (Department of Statistics and Economic Informatics, University of Craiova, 200585 Craiova, Romania)

Abstract

This study proposes a generalized grey Lotka–Volterra model with a finite number of variables. The model is obtained by applying the grey modelling method to estimate the parameters of a finite dimensional quadratic Lotka–Volterra system. Subsequently, the model is used to analyze the competition and cooperation relationship between four macroeconomic indicators, namely Gross Domestic Product, Export, Import and Investment, and to obtain short-time forecasting for them. The data used in the empirical investigation cover the time periods 2005–2022 and 2011–2022, for the European Union. The empirical results are compared to the ones obtained by using the grey model G M ( 1,1 ) and the two-dimensional grey Lotka–Volterra model. Finally, economic interpretations of the empirical findings are formulated.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihaela Sterpu & Carmen Rocșoreanu & Georgeta Soava & Anca Mehedintu, 2023. "A Generalization of the Grey Lotka–Volterra Model and Application to GDP, Export, Import and Investment for the European Union," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-23, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:11:y:2023:i:15:p:3351-:d:1207297
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/11/15/3351/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/11/15/3351/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maha Mohamed Alsebai Mohamed & Pingfeng Liu & Guihua Nie, 2021. "Are Technological Innovation and Foreign Direct Investment a Way to Boost Economic Growth? An Egyptian Case Study Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-28, March.
    2. Calin-Adrian Comes & Elena Bunduchi & Valentina Vasile & Daniel Stefan, 2018. "The Impact of Foreign Direct Investments and Remittances on Economic Growth: A Case Study in Central and Eastern Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, January.
    3. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
    4. Hongfeng Peng & Xiaoyu Tan & Yanli Li & Liqin Hu, 2016. "Economic Growth, Foreign Direct Investment and CO 2 Emissions in China: A Panel Granger Causality Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-13, March.
    5. Shandre Mugan Thangavelu & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2004. "Is there an export or import-led productivity growth in rapidly developing Asian countries? a multivariate VAR analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1083-1093.
    6. Gatabazi, P. & Mba, J.C. & Pindza, E. & Labuschagne, C., 2019. "Grey Lotka–Volterra models with application to cryptocurrencies adoption," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 47-57.
    7. Xiuping Ji & Feiran Dong & Chen Zheng & Naipeng Bu, 2022. "The Influences of International Trade on Sustainable Economic Growth: An Economic Policy Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-15, February.
    8. Marasco, A. & Picucci, A. & Romano, A., 2016. "Market share dynamics using Lotka–Volterra models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 49-62.
    9. Omri, Anis & Kahouli, Bassem, 2014. "Causal relationships between energy consumption, foreign direct investment and economic growth: Fresh evidence from dynamic simultaneous-equations models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 913-922.
    10. Ahmed, Elsadig Musa, 2012. "Are the FDI inflow spillover effects on Malaysia's economic growth input driven?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1498-1504.
    11. Fateh Habibi & Mohammad Sharif Karimi, 2017. "Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Iran and GCC," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 21(3), pages 601-620, Summer.
    12. Ibrahim Ari & Muammer Koc, 2020. "Economic Growth, Public and Private Investment: A Comparative Study of China and the United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-19, March.
    13. Lee, Jung Wan, 2013. "The contribution of foreign direct investment to clean energy use, carbon emissions and economic growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 483-489.
    14. Shujing Yue & Yang Yang & Yaoyu Hu, 2016. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Green Growth? Evidence from China’s Experience," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-14, February.
    15. Shiva S. Makki & Agapi Somwaru, 2004. "Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Trade on Economic Growth: Evidence from Developing Countries," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(3), pages 795-801.
    16. Hsiao, Frank S.T. & Hsiao, Mei-Chu W., 2006. "FDI, exports, and GDP in East and Southeast Asia--Panel data versus time-series causality analyses," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 1082-1106, December.
    17. Saman, Corina, 2011. "Scenarios of the Romanian GDP Evolution With Neural Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 129-140, December.
    18. Pegkas, Panagiotis, 2015. "The impact of FDI on economic growth in Eurozone countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 124-132.
    19. Saad Ahmed Javed & Sifeng Liu, 2018. "Predicting the research output/growth of selected countries: application of Even GM (1, 1) and NDGM models," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 115(1), pages 395-413, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shihong Zeng & Ya Zhou, 2021. "Foreign Direct Investment’s Impact on China’s Economic Growth, Technological Innovation and Pollution," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-24, March.
    2. Rashid Latief & Yusheng Kong & Yuanyuan Peng & Sohail Ahmad Javeed, 2020. "Conceptualizing Pathways of Sustainable Development in the Union for the Mediterranean Countries with an Empirical Intersection of Energy Consumption and Economic Growth," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-20, August.
    3. Ștefan Cristian Gherghina & Liliana Nicoleta Simionescu & Oana Simona Hudea, 2019. "Exploring Foreign Direct Investment–Economic Growth Nexus—Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-33, September.
    4. Michel Lioussis & Mònica Serrano, 2022. "Services trade contribution on global income generation (2000 - 2014) Abstract: This paper investigates the contribution of services trade to the variation of global income generation for the period o," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2022/423, University of Barcelona School of Economics.
    5. Shuai Chen & Jiameng Yang & Xinyi Kang, 2023. "Effect of Fiscal Expenditure for Supporting Agriculture on Agricultural Economic Efficiency in Central China—A Case Study of Henan Province," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-22, April.
    6. Ben Youssef, Adel & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Omri, Anis, 2016. "Simultaneity modeling analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 266-274.
    7. Magazzino, Cosimo & Mele, Marco, 2022. "Can a change in FDI accelerate GDP growth? Time-series and ANNs evidence on Malta," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    8. Rashid Latief & Lin Lefen, 2018. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Developing Countries along “One Belt and One Road”," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-22, October.
    9. Kalirajan, Kaliappa & Miankhel, Adil & Thangavelu, Shandre, 2009. "Foreign direct investment, exports, and economic growth in selected emerging countries: Multivariate VAR analysis," MPRA Paper 22763, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Sun, Ling & Fulginiti, Lilyan E. & Chen, Yo-Chan, 2010. "Taiwanese industry competitiveness when outward FDI is defensive," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 365-377, August.
    11. Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur & Mamun, Shamsul Arifeen Khan, 2016. "Energy use, international trade and economic growth nexus in Australia: New evidence from an extended growth model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 806-816.
    12. Afolabi Tunde Ahmed & Imran Ur Rahman, 2020. "The Impact of FDI and Foreign Aid on the Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 4(6), pages 53-70.
    13. Tekin, Rıfat Barış, 2012. "Economic growth, exports and foreign direct investment in Least Developed Countries: A panel Granger causality analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 868-878.
    14. Muhammad Shahbaz & Amatul Razzaq Chaudhary & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2020. "Is energy consumption sensitive to foreign capital inflows and currency devaluation in Pakistan?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(52), pages 5641-5658, June.
    15. Maria E. de Boyrie & Mordechai Kreinin, 2013. "Openness to Import and Productivity," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(03n04), pages 319-331, December.
    16. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Nasreen, Samia & Abbas, Faisal & Anis, Omri, 2015. "Does foreign direct investment impede environmental quality in high-, middle-, and low-income countries?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 275-287.
    17. Xiongfeng Pan & Jing Zhang & Changyu Li & Rong Quan & Bin Li, 2018. "Exploring Dynamic Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on China’s CO $$_{2}$$ 2 Emissions Using Markov-Switching Vector Error Correction Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(4), pages 1139-1151, December.
    18. Biswajit Maitra & Moutushi Chakraborty, 2021. "International trade, human capital and economic growth in Sri Lanka," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 405-426, September.
    19. Amir Iqbal & Xuan Tang & Samma Faiz Rasool, 2023. "Investigating the nexus between CO2 emissions, renewable energy consumption, FDI, exports and economic growth: evidence from BRICS countries," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 2234-2263, March.
    20. Sadam Hussain & Waqar Ahmad & Yasmeen Qamar & Muhammad Shahid Akram, 2019. "Impact of Inflation, CO2 Emissions and Foreign Investment on Economic Growth: A Case of Pakistan," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(4), pages 307-317, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:11:y:2023:i:15:p:3351-:d:1207297. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.