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Foreign direct investment, exports, and economic growth in selected emerging countries: Multivariate VAR analysis

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  • Kalirajan, Kaliappa
  • Miankhel, Adil
  • Thangavelu, Shandre

Abstract

The paper adopts a time series framework of the Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) to study the dynamic relationship between export, FDI and GDP for six emerging countries of Chile, India, Mexico, Malaysia, Pakistan and Thailand. Stationarity of the series with structural breaks is also examined in the model. Given that these countries are at different stages of growth, we will be able to identify the impact of FDI and export on economic growth at different stages of growth. The results suggest that in South Asia, there is evidence of an export led growth hypothesis. However, in the long run, we identify GDP growth as the common factor that drives growth in other variables such as exports in the case of Pakistan and FDI in the case of India. The Latin American countries of Mexico and Chile show a different relationship in the short run but in the long run, exports affect the growth of FDI and output. In the case of East Asian countries, we find bi-directional long run relationship among exports, FDI and GDP in Malaysia, while we find a long run uni-directional relationship from GDP to export in case of Thailand.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 22763.

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Date of creation: 28 May 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22763

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Keywords: FDI; Exports; Multivariate VAR; Pakistan; India; Malaysia; Thailand; Chile; Mexico.;

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  1. Easterly, William & King, Robert G & Levine, Ross & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1994. "Policy, Technology Adoption and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 957, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Liu, Xiaming & Wang, Chengang & Wei, Yingqi, 2001. "Causal links between foreign direct investment and trade in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 190-202.
  3. Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
  5. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
  6. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
  7. Shiva S. Makki & Agapi Somwaru, 2004. "Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Trade on Economic Growth: Evidence from Developing Countries," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(3), pages 795-801.
  8. Shandre Mugan Thangavelu & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2004. "Is there an export or import-led productivity growth in rapidly developing Asian countries? a multivariate VAR analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1083-1093.
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Cited by:
  1. Syed Imran Ali Meerza, 2012. "Causal links between trade, foreign direct investment and economic growth for Bangladesh," SDSU Working Papers in Progress 12012, South Dakota State University, Department of Economics.
  2. Khan, Shiraz & Mehboob, Farhan, 2014. "Impact of FDI on GDP: An Analysis of Global Economy on Production Function," MPRA Paper 55352, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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