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Modeling & Forecasting of Macro-Economic Variables of India: Before, During & After Recession

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  • Sinha, Pankaj
  • Gupta, Sushant
  • Randev, Nakul

Abstract

This paper examines the state of the Indian economy pre, during and post recession by analyzing various macro economic factors such as GDP, exchange rate, inflation, capital markets and fiscal deficit. We forecast some of the major economic variables using ARIMA modeling and present a picture of the Indian economy in the coming years. The findings indicate that Indian economy is reviving after a slowdown during the period of global recession. It is forecasted that GDP, foreign investments, fiscal deficit and capital markets will rise in 2010-11. Furthermore, the rupee-dollar exchange rate will not change much during the same period.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 26539.

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Date of creation: 07 Oct 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:26539

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Keywords: ARIMA; Box-Jenkins; Indian Economy; Forecasting;

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  1. Daga, Ugam Raj & Das, Rituparna & Maheshwari, Bhishma, 2004. "Estimation, Analysis and Projection of India’s GDP," MPRA Paper 22830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. D Subbarao, 2008. "The Global Financial Turmoil and Challenges for the Indian Economy," Working Papers id:1808, eSocialSciences.
  3. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Tony Cavoli, 2006. "The Extent of Exchange Rate Flexibility in India: Basket Pegger or Closet US Dollar Pegger?," Working Papers id:424, eSocialSciences.
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