Modeling & Forecasting of Macro-Economic Variables of India: Before, During & After Recession
AbstractThis paper examines the state of the Indian economy pre, during and post recession by analyzing various macro economic factors such as GDP, exchange rate, inflation, capital markets and fiscal deficit. We forecast some of the major economic variables using ARIMA modeling and present a picture of the Indian economy in the coming years. The findings indicate that Indian economy is reviving after a slowdown during the period of global recession. It is forecasted that GDP, foreign investments, fiscal deficit and capital markets will rise in 2010-11. Furthermore, the rupee-dollar exchange rate will not change much during the same period.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 26539.
Date of creation: 07 Oct 2010
Date of revision:
ARIMA; Box-Jenkins; Indian Economy; Forecasting;
Other versions of this item:
- Pankaj SINHA & Sushant GUPTA & Nakul RANDEV, 2011. "Modeling & Forecasting Of Macro-Economic Variables Of India: Before, During & After Recession," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 6(1(15)/ Sp), pages 43-60.
- B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
- E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-11-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-CWA-2010-11-20 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-FOR-2010-11-20 (Forecasting)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Daga, Ugam Raj & Das, Rituparna & Maheshwari, Bhishma, 2004. "Estimation, Analysis and Projection of India’s GDP," MPRA Paper 22830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- D Subbarao, 2008. "The Global Financial Turmoil and Challenges for the Indian Economy," Working Papers id:1808, eSocialSciences.
- Ramkishen S. Rajan & Tony Cavoli, 2006. "The Extent of Exchange Rate Flexibility in India: Basket Pegger or Closet US Dollar Pegger?," Working Papers id:424, eSocialSciences.
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