Modeling & Forecasting Of Macro-Economic Variables Of India: Before, During & After Recession
AbstractThis paper examines the state of the Indian economy pre, during and post-recession by analysing various macro-economic factors such as GDP, exchange rate, inflation, capital markets and fiscal deficit. We forecast some of the major economic variables using ARIMA modelling and present a picture of the Indian economy in the coming years. The findings indicate that Indian economy is reviving after a slowdown during the period of global recession. It is forecasted that GDP, foreign investments, fiscal deficit and capital markets will rise in 2010-11. Furthermore, the rupee-dollar exchange rates will not change much during the same period.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova in its journal Journal of Applied Economic Sciences.
Volume (Year): 6 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1(15)/ Spring 2011 ()
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Web page: http://www2.spiruharet.ro/facultati/facultate.php?id=14
More information through EDIRC
ARIMA; Box-Jenkins; Indian economy; forecasting;
Other versions of this item:
- Sinha, Pankaj & Gupta, Sushant & Randev, Nakul, 2010. "Modeling & Forecasting of Macro-Economic Variables of India: Before, During & After Recession," MPRA Paper 26539, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
- E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- D Subbarao, 2008. "The Global Financial Turmoil and Challenges for the Indian Economy," Working Papers id:1808, eSocialSciences.
- Ramkishen S. Rajan & Tony Cavoli, 2006. "The Extent of Exchange Rate Flexibility in India: Basket Pegger or Closet US Dollar Pegger?," Working Papers id:424, eSocialSciences.
- Daga, Ugam Raj & Das, Rituparna & Maheshwari, Bhishma, 2004. "Estimation, Analysis and Projection of India’s GDP," MPRA Paper 22830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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