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Modeling & Forecasting Of Macro-Economic Variables Of India: Before, During & After Recession

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  • Pankaj SINHA
  • Sushant GUPTA
  • Nakul RANDEV

Abstract

This paper examines the state of the Indian economy pre, during and post-recession by analysing various macro-economic factors such as GDP, exchange rate, inflation, capital markets and fiscal deficit. We forecast some of the major economic variables using ARIMA modelling and present a picture of the Indian economy in the coming years. The findings indicate that Indian economy is reviving after a slowdown during the period of global recession. It is forecasted that GDP, foreign investments, fiscal deficit and capital markets will rise in 2010-11. Furthermore, the rupee-dollar exchange rates will not change much during the same period.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova in its journal Journal of Applied Economic Sciences.

Volume (Year): 6 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1(15)/ Spring 2011 ()
Pages: 43-60

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Handle: RePEc:ush:jaessh:v:6:y:2011:i:1(15)_spring2011:p:129

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Web page: http://www2.spiruharet.ro/facultati/facultate.php?id=14
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Related research

Keywords: ARIMA; Box-Jenkins; Indian economy; forecasting;

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  1. D Subbarao, 2008. "The Global Financial Turmoil and Challenges for the Indian Economy," Working Papers id:1808, eSocialSciences.
  2. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Tony Cavoli, 2006. "The Extent of Exchange Rate Flexibility in India: Basket Pegger or Closet US Dollar Pegger?," Working Papers id:424, eSocialSciences.
  3. Daga, Ugam Raj & Das, Rituparna & Maheshwari, Bhishma, 2004. "Estimation, Analysis and Projection of India’s GDP," MPRA Paper 22830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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