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Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test. An application to the rate of unemployment

Author

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  • Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre

    (Departament d'Econometria, Estadística i Economia Espanyola, Universitat de Barcelona)

  • Tomás del Barrio-Castro

    (Departament d'Econometria, Estadística i Economia Espanyola, Universitat de Barcelona)

  • Enrique López-Bazo

    (Departament d'Econometria, Estadística i Economia Espanyola, Universitat de Barcelona)

Abstract

Several unit root tests in panel data have recently been proposed. The test developed by Harris and Tzavalis (1999 JoE) performs particularly well when the time dimension is moderate in relation to the cross-section dimension. However, in common with the traditional tests designed for the unidimensional case, it was found to perform poorly when there is a structural break in the time series under the alternative. Here we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test allowing for a shift in the mean, and assess the small sample performance. We apply this new test to show how the hypothesis of (perfect) hysteresis in Spanish unemployment is rejected in favour of the alternative of the natural unemployment rate, when the possibility of a change in the latter is considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Tomás del Barrio-Castro & Enrique López-Bazo, 2002. "Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test. An application to the rate of unemployment," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 C5-2, International Conferences on Panel Data.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpd:pd2002:c5-2
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    1. Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre & Tomas del Barrio Castro & Enrique Lopez Bazo, 2002. "Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test. An application to the rate of unemployment," Working Papers in Economics 79, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2006. "New evidence of the real interest rate parity for OECD countries using panel unit root tests with breaks," Working Papers in Economics 159, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    2. Rickard Sandberg, 2016. "Testing for unit roots in nonlinear heterogeneous panels with smoothly changing trends: an application to Scandinavian unemployment rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1053-1083, November.
    3. Jushan Bai & Josep Lluís Carrion-I-Silvestre, 2009. "Structural Changes, Common Stochastic Trends, and Unit Roots in Panel Data," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(2), pages 471-501.
    4. Chowdhury, Rosen Azad & Russell, Bill, 2012. "The Difference, System and ‘Double-D’ GMM Panel Estimators in the Presence of Structural Breaks," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-48, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    5. Rosen Azad Chowdhury & Bill Russell, 2018. "The difference, system and ‘Double‐D’ GMM panel estimators in the presence of structural breaks," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(3), pages 271-292, July.
    6. Pui Sun Tam & University of Macau, 2006. "Breaking trend panel unit root tests," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 341, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Karavias, Yiannis & Tzavalis, Elias, 2014. "Testing for unit roots in short panels allowing for a structural break," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 391-407.
    8. Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre & Tomas del Barrio Castro & Enrique Lopez Bazo, 2002. "Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test. An application to the rate of unemployment," Working Papers in Economics 79, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    9. Christophe Hurlin & Valérie Mignon, 2005. "Une synthèse des tests de racine unitaire sur données de panel," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(3), pages 253-294.
    10. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Tomás del Barrio-Castro & Enrique López-Bazo, 2005. "Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 159-175, July.
    11. Josep Carrion-i-Silvestre & Vicente German-Soto, 2009. "Panel data stochastic convergence analysis of the Mexican regions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 303-327, October.
    12. Syed A. Basher & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre, 2007. "Another Look at the Null of Stationary RealExchange Rates. Panel Data with Structural Breaks and Cross-section Dependence," IREA Working Papers 200710, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2007.
    13. Chan, Felix & Pauwels, Laurent, 2011. "Model specification in panel data unit root tests with an unknown break," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 1299-1309.
    14. He, Changli & Sandberg, Rickard, 2005. "Inference for Unit Roots in a Panel Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model where the Time Dimension is Fixed," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 581, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 18 Feb 2005.
    15. Magnus Gustavsson & Par Osterholm, 2006. "Hysteresis and non-linearities in unemployment rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 545-548.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General

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