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Modelling The Economic Growth In Romania With The Solow Model

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  • Caraiani, Petre

    () (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Bucharest)

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    Abstract

    In this study I make an estimation of the Solow model for the Romanian economy. Starting from the estimates of the parameters from other studies, I simulate the model both for the 1990-2004 period and in the long run. The study shows that the Solow model provides a good approximation of the dynamics of the Romanian economy for the 1990-2004 period, with respect to the dynamics of the aggregate GDP and to the ratios of the main macroeconomic variables, like production per worker, capital-output ratio or capital per worker. The simulation for the 2030 time horizon indicates a potential of growth of over 3%.

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    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef1_07/rjef1_07_6.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 4 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 1 (March)
    Pages: 77-88

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    Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:4:y:2007:i:1:p:77-88

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    Related research

    Keywords: economic growth; productivity; transition;

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    References

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    1. Ratna Sahay & Stanley Fischer & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1998. "From Transition to Market - Evidence and Growth Prospects," IMF Working Papers 98/52, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Caraiani, Petre, 2004. "Estimating Total Factor Productivity In The Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 1(1), pages 97-108, February.
    3. Croitoru, Lucian & Tarhoaca, Cornel, 2003. "The Romanian Growth Potential – A Cge Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 7-22, December.
    4. Susan M. Collins & Barry P. Bosworth, 1996. "Economic Growth in East Asia: Accumulation versus Assimilation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 135-204.
    5. Crafts, Nicholas & Kaiser, Kai, 2004. "Long-term growth prospects in transition economies: a reappraisal," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 101-118, March.
    6. Albu, Lucian Liviu & Roudoi, Andrei, 2003. "Factors And Mechanisms Of Economic Growth In Transition Economies Of Different Types (Case Of Romania)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 50-64, December.
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