IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/ecoint/0760.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: Further Empirical Evidence for India (1996-2013) - La struttura a termine dei tassi di interesse: ulteriore evidenza empirica per l’India (1996-2013)

Author

Listed:
  • Tronzano, Marco

    (Università degli Studi di Genova, Scuola di Scienze Sociali, Dipartimento di Economia)

Abstract

This paper extends the analysis of Tronzano (2014) inside a multivariate cointegration framework. I show that the Indian term structure of interest rates is driven by one common stochastic trend. Moreover, closely in line with Tronzano (2014), I document that the “symmetry” condition on cointegrating vectors is supported by data, whereas the “Pure” version of the Expectations Hypothesis is strongly rejected. Further investigation through variance decomposition tests and persistency profiles of cointegrating vectors corroborates other results obtained in Tronzano (2014) (i.e. short-term interest rate exogeneity and a faster adjustment speed of spreads at shorter maturities). Overall, these results provide strong empirical support for a monetary policy strategy relying on a short-term interest rate target. - Questo lavoro estende l’analisi condotta in Tronzano (2014) in un contesto di cointegrazione multivariata e mostra che la struttura a termine dei tassi di interesse in India è guidata da un trend stocastico comune. Inoltre, in linea con Tronzano (2014), si mostra che la condizione di “simmetria” sui vettori di contegrazione è supportata dai dati, mentre la versione “pura” della “Expectations Hypothesis” è fortemente rigettata dall’evidenza empirica. Ulteriori analisi attraverso i tests di decomposizione della varianza e i profili di persistenza dei vettori di cointegrazione supportano altri risultati ottenuti in Tronzano (2014) (cioè la esogeneità del tasso di interesse a breve termine e una maggiore velocità di aggiustamento dei differenziali dei tassi di interesse per le scadenze più brevi). Nel complesso, questi risultati forniscono un robusto supporto empirico a una strategia di politica monetaria basata sul controllo di un tasso di interesse a breve termine da parte della Banca Centrale.

Suggested Citation

  • Tronzano, Marco, 2015. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: Further Empirical Evidence for India (1996-2013) - La struttura a termine dei tassi di interesse: ulteriore evidenza empirica per l’India (1996-2013)," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(3), pages 401-421.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0760
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iei1946.it/RePEc/ccg/TRONZANO%20401_421.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benjamin Tabak, 2009. "Testing the expectations hypothesis in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates: a cointegration analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(21), pages 2681-2689.
    2. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L. & Valente, Giorgio, 2007. "The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(1), pages 81-100, March.
    3. J. M. Culbertson, 1957. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 71(4), pages 485-517.
    4. Panagiotis T. Konstantinou, 2005. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure : A Look at the Polish Interbank Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 70-91, May.
    5. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    6. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    7. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Taylor, Mark P, 1992. "Modelling the Yield Curve," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(412), pages 524-537, May.
    9. Konstantinou, Panagiotis, 2004. "Term Structure Dynamics: A Daily View from the Hungarian Foreign Currency Deposits Markets," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 57(3), pages 315-331.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    11. Minoas Koukouritakis & Leo Michelis, 2008. "The term structure of interest rates in the 12 newest EU countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 479-490.
    12. Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-126, February.
    13. Arusha Cooray, 2003. "A test of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates for Sri Lanka," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(17), pages 1819-1827.
    14. Arshanapalli, Bala & Doukas, John, 1994. "Common stochastic trends in a system of Eurocurrency rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1047-1061, December.
    15. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
    16. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    17. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    18. A. Mansur & M. Masih & Vicky Ryan, 2005. "The term structure of interest rates in Australia: an application of long run structural modelling," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 557-573.
    19. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
    20. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338.
    21. Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 1994. "Cointegration and the US term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 167-181, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tronzano, Marco, 2015. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure in Emerging Financial Markets: Some Evidence from Malaysia (1999-2015) - La struttura a termine dei tassi di interesse nei paesi emergenti: alcune evi," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(4), pages 521-550.
    2. Tronzano, Marco, 2015. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in India: Evidence from the Post-Liberalization Period (1996-2013). -La struttura a termine dei tassi di interesse in India: una analisi empirica sul recente perio," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(2), pages 275-295.
    3. Tronzano, Marco, 2018. "Does the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure Hold in Korea after the Asian Financial Crisis? Some Empirical Evidence (1999-2017)," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 71(2), pages 191-226.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Silva Lopes, Artur C. & M. Monteiro, Olga Susana, 2007. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure: some empirical evidence for Portugal," MPRA Paper 3437, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bruno Ducoudre, 2008. "Structure par terme des taux d’intérêt et anticipations de la politique économique," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5221, Sciences Po.
    7. Olga Susana M. Monteiro & Artur C. B. da Silva Lopes, 2010. "Short- and Long-Run Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: The Portuguese Case," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(3), pages 257-280.
    8. Panagiotis T. Konstantinou, 2005. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure : A Look at the Polish Interbank Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 70-91, May.
    9. Zeno Rotondi, 2006. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Review of the Literature with Some New Evidence," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(2), pages 193-224, November.
    10. Vides, José Carlos & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús, 2021. "The impact of the term spread in US monetary policy from 1870 to 2013," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 230-251.
    11. Guidolin, Massimo & Thornton, Daniel L., 2018. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 636-664.
    12. Vides, José Carlos & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús, 2020. "The EHTS and the persistence in the spread reconsidered. A fractional cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 124-137.
    13. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2017. "Asymmetries in Yield Curves: Some Empirical Evidence from Ghana," MPRA Paper 79155, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Benjamin Tabak, 2009. "Testing the expectations hypothesis in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates: a cointegration analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(21), pages 2681-2689.
    15. Konstantinou, Panagiotis, 2004. "Term Structure Dynamics: A Daily View from the Hungarian Foreign Currency Deposits Markets," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 57(3), pages 315-331.
    16. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2010. "New Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 33-62, February.
    17. Andr? Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2612-2632, October.
    18. Richard H. Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2006. "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1193-1224, May.
    19. Esteve, Vicente & Navarro-Ibáñez, Manuel & Prats, María A., 2013. "The Spanish term structure of interest rates revisited: Cointegration with multiple structural breaks, 1974–2010," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 24-34.
    20. Till Strohsal & Enzo Weber, 2014. "Mean-variance cointegration and the expectations hypothesis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(11), pages 1983-1997, November.
    21. Luciano Vereda & Hélio Lopes & Jessica Kubrusly & Adrian Pizzinga & Taofik Mohammed Ibrahim, 2014. "Yield Curve Forecasts and the Predictive Power of Macro Variables in a VAR Framework," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 3, pages 377-393.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term Structure of Interest Rates; Multivariate Cointegration; India; Monetary Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0760. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Angela Procopio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cacogit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.