IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prg/jnlpep/v2023y2023i5id840p488-519.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

European Housing Prices Through the Lens of Trends

Author

Listed:
  • Ales Melecky
  • Daniel Paksi

Abstract

We study convergence and club formation of housing prices in European countries using several measures of housing prices. We employ correlations, innovative trend and gap approaches, and cointegration analysis to study the long-term development of housing prices and their reactions to crises. We find that housing prices in European countries do not converge and their development since the creation of the monetary union has differed. The most prominent examples are the differences between Southern European countries heavily affected by the Global Financial Crisis and the rest of the countries. Our analysis reveals several country clubs with similar growth patterns and reaction to crises which do not necessarily follow the traditional division between old and new EU member states. Our findings are in line with the literature, which finds that housing prices in the EU do not converge overall, and housing prices do not co-move in general, but only within smaller subgroups, which may be regionally dispersed.

Suggested Citation

  • Ales Melecky & Daniel Paksi, 2023. "European Housing Prices Through the Lens of Trends," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2023(5), pages 488-519.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2023:y:2023:i:5:id:840:p:488-519
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.840
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pep.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.pep.840.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://pep.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.pep.840.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18267/j.pep.840?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2011. "House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the US Experience," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 533-551, May.
    2. Cheol Eun & Lingling Wang & Tim Zhang, 2022. "House Price Growth Synchronization and Business Cycle Alignment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 675-710, November.
    3. Ferrara, L. & Koopman, S J., 2010. "Common business and housing market cycles in the Euro area from a multivariate decomposition," Working papers 275, Banque de France.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Essi Eerola & Niku Maattanen, 2018. "Borrowing constraints and housing market liquidity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 27, pages 184-204, January.
    2. Kelly, Robert & O'Toole, Conor, 2016. "Lending Conditions and Loan Default: What Can We Learn From UK Buy-to-Let Loans?," Research Technical Papers 04/RT/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13289 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. McQuinn, Kieran, 2017. "Irish house prices: Déjà vu all over again?," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    6. Duca, John V., 2017. "The Great Depression versus the Great Recession in the U.S.: How fiscal, monetary, and financial polices compare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 50-64.
    7. McQuinn, Kieran & O’Toole, Conor & Slaymaker, Rachel, 2021. "Credit access, macroprudential rules and policy interventions: Lessons for potential first time buyers," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 944-963.
    8. Luc Laeven & Alexander Popov, 2017. "Waking Up from the American Dream: On the Experience of Young Americans during the Housing Boom of the 2000s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(5), pages 861-895, August.
    9. Gianni La Cava, 2016. "Housing prices, mortgage interest rates and the rising share of capital income in the United States," BIS Working Papers 572, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Zhang, Yahong, 2019. "Household debt, financial intermediation, and monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 230-257.
    11. Christophe André, 2016. "Household debt in OECD countries: stylised facts and policy issues," Chapters from NBP Conference Publications, in: Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Łaszek & Krzysztof Olszewski & Joanna Waszczuk (ed.), Papers presented during the Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop: Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis - 2015 edition, chapter 2, pages v1, 33-85, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    12. Daniel Levy & Avichai Snir, 2018. "Here Lives a Wealthy Man: Price Rigidity and Predictability in Luxury Housing Markets," Working Paper series 18-16, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    13. Josh Ryan-Collins, 2021. "Breaking the housing–finance cycle: Macroeconomic policy reforms for more affordable homes," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 53(3), pages 480-502, May.
    14. Henrik Jensen & Ivan Petrella & Søren Hove Ravn & Emiliano Santoro, 2020. "Leverage and Deepening Business-Cycle Skewness," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 245-281, January.
    15. Pedro Gete, 2015. "Housing demands, savings gluts and current account dynamics," Globalization Institute Working Papers 221, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    16. Crowe, Christopher & Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni & Igan, Deniz & Rabanal, Pau, 2013. "How to deal with real estate booms: Lessons from country experiences," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 300-319.
    17. David F Hendry & John N J Muellbauer, 2018. "The future of macroeconomics: macro theory and models at the Bank of England," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(1-2), pages 287-328.
    18. Muellbauer, John, 2018. "The Future of Macroeconomics," INET Oxford Working Papers 2018-10, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    19. Fondeur, Y. & Karamé, F., 2013. "Can Google data help predict French youth unemployment?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 117-125.
    20. Branch, William A. & Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas & Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2016. "Financial frictions, the housing market, and unemployment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 101-135.
    21. Sonia Gilbukh & Andrew Haughwout & Rebecca J. Landau & Joseph Tracy, 2023. "The price‐to‐rent ratio: A macroprudential application," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 503-532, March.
    22. Eunseong Ma & Sarah Zubairy, 2021. "Homeownership And Housing Transitions: Explaining The Demographic Composition," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 599-638, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    convergence; correlation; cointegration; EU; housing prices; trends; JEL Codes: E31; G01; R31;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2023:y:2023:i:5:id:840:p:488-519. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stanislav Vojir (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/uevsecz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.