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Development of Life Expectancy in the Czech Republic in Years 1920-2010 with an Outlook to 2050

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  • Markéta Arltová
  • Jitka Langhamrová
  • Jana Langhamrová
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    Abstract

    At present the majority of advanced countries are dealing with the problem of the ageing of the population. The Czech Republic is no exception. Demographic ageing is caused by the fact that mortality is dropping, especially infant mortality, and this expectation of life at birth. At the same time the birth rate is declining and subsequently total fertility rate drops below the preservation level of simple reproduction, which means that there are less children and more persons in particular in the older and oldest age-groups. It is very important to realise that the changes in the level of mortality bring with them positive impacts in lengthening of life expectancy on the one hand, but on the other hand, there is significant demographic ageing of the population. In this contribution we would like to show how the life expectancy has developed in the Czech Republic in a historical context and how it might develop in the coming years. For professionals the application of the Lee-Carter method will certainly be interesting - this is a method commonly used in the world by demographers and actuaries for modelling the future development of mortality and it is also the basic method used for stochastic demographic projections.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by University of Economics, Prague in its journal Prague Economic Papers.

    Volume (Year): 2013 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 125-143

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    Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2013:y:2013:i:1:id:444:p:125-143

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    Related research

    Keywords: life expectancy; Lee-Carter method; co-integration; ageing of population;

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    References

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    1. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
    2. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    3. Wolfgang Härdle & Alena Mysickova, 2009. "Stochastic Population Forecast for Germany and its Consequence for the German Pension System," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-009, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    4. Brouhns, Natacha & Denuit, Michel & Vermunt, Jeroen K., 2002. "A Poisson log-bilinear regression approach to the construction of projected lifetables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 373-393, December.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
    6. Arthur Renshaw & Steven Haberman, 2003. "Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a parallel generalized linear modelling approach for England and Wales mortality projections," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 52(1), pages 119-137.
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