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Smart Agents and Sentiment in the Heterogeneous Agent Model

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Author Info

  • Lukáš Vácha
  • Jozef Barunik
  • Miloslav Vošvrda

Abstract

In this paper we extend the original heterogeneous agent model by introducing smart traders and changes in agents' sentiment. The idea of smart traders is based on the endeavor of market agents to estimate future price movements. By adding smart traders and changes in sentiment we try to improve the original heterogeneous agents model so that it provides a closer description of real markets. The main result of the simulations is that the probability distribution functions of the price deviations change significantly when smart traders are added to the model, and they also change significantly when changes in sentiment are introduced. We also use the Hurst exponent to measure the persistence of the price deviations and we find that the Hurst exponent is significantly increasing with the number of smart traders in the simulations. This means that the introduction of the smart traders concept into the model results in significantly higher persistence of the simulated price deviations. On the other hand, the introduction of changing sentiment in the proposed form does not change the persistence of the simulated prices significantly.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Economics, Prague in its journal Prague Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 2009 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 209-219

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Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2009:y:2009:i:3:id:350:p:209-219

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Related research

Keywords: smart traders; market structure; Hurst exponent; heterogeneous agent model;

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References

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  1. J. Doyne Farmer & Shareen Joshi, 2000. "The Price Dynamics of Common Trading Strategies," Working Papers 00-12-069, Santa Fe Institute.
  2. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2003. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk, And Learning In A Simple Asset-Pricing Model With A Market Maker," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(04), pages 503-536, September.
  3. repec:att:wimass:9621 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  5. Lukáš Vácha & Miloslav Vošvrda, 2007. "Wavelet Decomposition of the Financial Market," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2007(1), pages 38-54.
  6. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186 Elsevier.
  7. Miloslav Vošvrda & Lukáš Vácha, 2002. "Heterogeneous Agent Model And Numerical Analysis Of Learning," Bulletin of the Czech Econometric Society, The Czech Econometric Society, vol. 9(17).
  8. Miloslav Vošvrda & Lukáš Vácha, 2003. "Heterogeneous agent model with memory and asset price behaviour," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2003(2).
  9. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Jiri Kukacka & Jozef Barunik, 2012. "Behavioural breaks in the heterogeneous agent model: the impact of herding, overconfidence, and market sentiment," Papers 1205.3763, arXiv.org, revised May 2013.

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