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Predicting price intervals under exogenously induced stress

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  • Steven Shead
  • Robert B Durand
  • Stephanie Thomas

Abstract

We present an experimental protocol to examine the relationship between exogenously induced stress and confidence in a setting applicable to financial markets. Confidence will be measured by a prediction interval for a one period ahead price forecast, based on a series of 100 previous prices; narrower (wider) prediction intervals will be indicative of greater (lower) confidence. Stress will be induced using the Cold Pressor Arm Wrap, a variation of the Cold Pressor Test. Risk attitudes, and personality traits are also considered as mediating factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Shead & Robert B Durand & Stephanie Thomas, 2021. "Predicting price intervals under exogenously induced stress," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-15, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0255038
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0255038
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    References listed on IDEAS

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