IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pje/journl/article27winiii.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Role of Public Debt in Economic Growth of Sri Lanka: An ARDL Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Naeem AKRAM*

Abstract

Over the past few years most of the developing countries are facing hardship in collecting enough revenues to finance their budget. The situation of balance of payments is also not favouring the developing countries and the current account deficit is faced by them. Consequently twin deficits have emerged and the reliance on public external and domestic debt to finance the developmental activities have increased. The present study examines the consequences of public debt for economic growth and investment in Sri Lanka, for the period 1975-2014 by using the Autoregressive Distributed lag Model (ARDL) technique. The present study reveals that in Sri Lanka, public external debt has helped the process of economic growth; but debt servicing has a negative relationship to per capita GDP and investment. The external debt played a crucial role in development of this civil war which had hit the country; but however, debt servicing is a major concern in Sri Lanka. Domestic debt has positive and significant relationship with per capita GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Naeem AKRAM*, 2017. "Role of Public Debt in Economic Growth of Sri Lanka: An ARDL Approach," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 27(2), pages 189-212.
    • Handle: RePEc:pje:journl:article27winiii
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.aerc.edu.pk/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/3-ROLE-OF-PUBLIC-DEBT-IN-ECONOMIC-GROWTH-1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Zak, Paul J & Knack, Stephen, 2001. "Trust and Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(470), pages 295-321, April.
    3. Aizenman, Joshua & Pinto, Brian & Radziwill, Artur, 2007. "Sources for financing domestic capital - Is foreign saving a viable option for developing countries?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 682-702, September.
    4. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2003. "Economic Growth, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262025531, December.
    5. David Dollar & Craig Burnside, 2000. "Aid, Policies, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 847-868, September.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    7. Acemoglu,Daron & Robinson,James A., 2009. "Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671422.
    8. World Bank, 2016. "World Development Indicators 2016," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 23969, December.
    9. Jeffrey Sachs, 1986. "Managing the LDC Debt Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 17(2), pages 397-440.
    10. Shuanglin Lin, 2000. "Government Debt and Economic Growth in an Overlapping Generations Model," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 66(3), pages 754-763, January.
    11. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    12. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    13. Mr. Rodolphe Blavy, 2006. "Public Debt and Productivity: The Difficult Quest for Growth in Jamaica," IMF Working Papers 2006/235, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Eaton, Jonathan, 1993. "Sovereign Debt: A Primer," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 7(2), pages 137-172, May.
    15. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David Weil, 1990. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," Working Papers 1990-24, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    16. Paul M. Romer, 1994. "The Origins of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 3-22, Winter.
    17. Adolfo Barajas & Roberto Steiner & Natalia Salazar, 1999. "Interest Spreads in Banking in Colombia, 1974-96," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-4.
    18. Mr. Michael Kumhof & Mr. Evan C Tanner, 2005. "Government Debt: A Key Role in Financial Intermediation," IMF Working Papers 2005/057, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Krugman, Paul, 1988. "Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 253-268, November.
    20. Sawada, Yasuyuki, 1994. "Are the heavily indebted countries solvent?: Tests of intertemporal borrowing constraints," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 325-337, December.
    21. Majid Taghavi, 2000. "Debt, growth and inflation in large European economies: a vector auto-regression analysis," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 159-173.
    22. Villanueva, Delano P, 1972. "Public Debt, "Efficient" Labor, and Growth: A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(4), pages 1016-1018, November.
    23. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    24. Akram, Naeem, 2010. "Fiscal Scenario of South Asian Countries: Implications for Economic Growth and Poverty Alleviation," MPRA Paper 29103, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    26. Husain, Aasim M, 1997. "Domestic Taxes and the External Debt Laffer Curve," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 64(255), pages 519-525, August.
    27. Sen, Swapan & Kasibhatla, Krishna M. & Stewart, David B., 2007. "Debt overhang and economic growth-the Asian and the Latin American experiences," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 3-11, March.
    28. Mahdavi, Saeid, 2004. "Shifts in the Composition of Government Spending in Response to External Debt Burden," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1139-1157, July.
    29. Catherine Pattillo & Hélène Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2011. "External Debt and Growth," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 2(3).
    30. Andrew M. Warner, 1992. "Did the Debt Crisis Cause the Investment Crisis?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(4), pages 1161-1186.
    31. Naqvi, Syed Nawab Haider, 2010. "Evolution of Development Policy: A Reinterpretation," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195477733.
    32. Abdur Chowdhury, 2001. "External Debt and Growth in Developing Countries: A Sensitivity and Causal Analysis," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-95, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    33. Maureen Were, 2001. "The Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth in Kenya: An Empirical Assessment," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-116, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    34. Erdal Karagol, 2002. "The Causality Analysis of External Debt Service and GNP : The Case of Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 2(1), pages 39-64.
    35. Mr. Philippe Beaugrand & Mr. Montfort Mlachila & Mr. Boileau Loko, 2002. "The Choice Between External and Domestic Debt in Financing Budget Deficits: The Case of Central and West African Countries," IMF Working Papers 2002/079, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Edward L. Glaeser & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2004. "Do Institutions Cause Growth?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 271-303, September.
    37. Martin Feldstein, 1986. "Budget Deficits, Tax Rules, and real Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    39. Zafar Iqbal & Ghulam Mustafa Zahid, 1998. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Economic Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 125-148.
    40. Toan Quoc Nguyen & Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Ms. Rina Bhattacharya, 2003. "External Debt, Public Investment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2003/249, International Monetary Fund.
    41. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    42. Barajas, Adolfo & Steiner, Roberto & Salazar, Natalia, 2000. "The impact of liberalization and foreign investment in Colombia's financial sector," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 157-196, October.
    43. Mr. David Hauner, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Development," IMF Working Papers 2006/026, International Monetary Fund.
    44. Augustin Kwasi Fosu, 2007. "The External Debt-Servicing Constraint and Public Expenditure Composition: Evidence from African Economies," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2007-36, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    45. Ms. Hélène Poirson & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo, 2004. "What Are the Channels Through Which External Debt Affects Growth?," IMF Working Papers 2004/015, International Monetary Fund.
    46. Mark Rogers, 2003. "A Survey of Economic Growth," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 79(244), pages 112-135, March.
    47. David J. Smyth & Yu Hsing, 1995. "In Search Of An Optimal Debt Ratio For Economic Growth," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(4), pages 51-59, October.
    48. Shuanglin Lin & Kim Sosin, 2001. "Foreign debt and economic growth," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(3), pages 635-655, November.
    49. Mr. S. M. Ali Abbas & Mr. Jakob E Christensen, 2007. "The Role of Domestic Debt Markets in Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Low-Income Countries and Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2007/127, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anh Tru Nguyen, 2018. "The Relationship among Economic Growth, Trade, Unemployment, and Inflation in South Asia: A Vector Autoregressive Model Approach," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 5(2), pages 165-172.
    2. Biswajit Maitra, 2021. "Relative role of external debt, FDI, and domestic investment in economic growth: evidence from Sri Lanka," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 329-347, September.
    3. Saungweme Talknice & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2019. "Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 64(3), pages 23-38, December.
    4. Shubham Kakran & Nishant Sapra & Ashish Kumar & Arpit Sidhu, 2024. "Interrelationship dynamics between stock markets of nation under debt crisis and its major trading partners: evidence from Sri Lankan crisis," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Suvra Prokash Mondal & Biswajit Maitra, 2021. "Assessing Growth Impact of Public Debt in Sri Lanka," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 20(2), pages 201-226, December.
    6. Charles Bahr & Lee Hui Shan & Alfred Lam, 2020. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Debt: An Empirical Analysis of Evidence from Canada," Journal of Accounting, Business and Finance Research, Scientific Publishing Institute, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Naeem Akram, 2013. "Empirical examination of debt and growth nexus in South Asian countries," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 20(2), pages 29-52, December.
    2. Amal Soliman ElGhouty, 2018. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Egypt," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 8(3), pages 183-200, September.
    3. Haytham Y.M. Ewaida, 2017. "The Impact of Sovereign Debt on Growth: An Empirical Study on GIIPS versus JUUSD Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2A), pages 607-633.
    4. Ikonen, Pasi, 2017. "Financial depth, debt, and growth," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number e51.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2010_021 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Ilkhom SHARIPOV, 2016. "ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE EU’S EaP COUNTRIES: DETERMINANTS AND PROSPECTS," EURINT, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 3, pages 169-187.
    7. Riffat, Nisma & Munir, Kashif, 2015. "Exploring the Channels and Impact of Debt on Economic Growth in South Asia," MPRA Paper 66830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Kumar, Saten & Pacheco, Gail, 2012. "What determines the long run growth rate in Kenya?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 705-718.
    9. Aslý YENÝPAZARLI, 2017. "Economic freedom and effects on economic growth: A time series analysis for Turkey," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 345-351, September.
    10. Ikonen, Pasi, 2010. "Effect of finance on growth through more efficient utilization of technological innovations," Research Discussion Papers 21/2010, Bank of Finland.
    11. Khalil Ahmad & Amun Khalid & Zoya Noor, 2016. "The role of IMF in Pakistan’s economy," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(3), pages 126-134, September.
    12. Amavilah, Voxi Heinrich, 2014. "Knowledge = Technology + Human Capital and the Lucas and Romer Production Functions," MPRA Paper 58847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Ikonen, Pasi, 2010. "Effect of finance on growth through more efficient utilization of technological innovations," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2010, Bank of Finland.
    14. Hatice KÜÇÜKKAYA, 2017. "EUREFE’17 International Conference," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 343-344, September.
    15. Doğan, İbrahim & Bilgili, Faik, 2014. "The non-linear impact of high and growing government external debt on economic growth: A Markov Regime-switching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 213-220.
    16. Taner Turan & Halit Yanıkkaya, 2021. "External debt, growth and investment for developing countries: some evidence for the debt overhang hypothesis," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 20(3), pages 319-341, September.
    17. Adegboyega Raymond Rahaj, 2018. "Eternal Debt and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An ARDL Approach," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 14(4), pages 581-596, AUGUST.
    18. Manamba EPAPHRA & William MESIET, 2021. "The external debt burden and economic growth in Africa: a panel data analysis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(627), S), pages 175-206, Summer.
    19. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2019. "The impact of debt service on economic growth:Empirical evidence from Zambia," Working Papers 25652, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    20. Oumansour Nor-Eddine & Chkiriba Driss, 2019. "External public debt and economic growth in Morocco: assessment and impacts," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 8(2), pages 80-95, December.
    21. Johannes W. Fedderke & John M. Luiz, 2005. "Does Human Generate Social and Institutional Capital? Exploring Evidence From Time Series Data in a Middle Income Country," Working Papers 029, Economic Research Southern Africa.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pje:journl:article27winiii. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Samina Khalil (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aekarpk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.