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The Causality Analysis of External Debt Service and GNP : The Case of Turkey

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  • Erdal Karagol

Abstract

It is argued that debt service burden has a negative impact on investment and capital accumulation. The main reason is that the greater percentage of reserves (foreign currency) goes to meet debt service and there will be a reduction in external capital because of a decrease in creditworthiness. This paper extends the model of Cunningham (1992) and uses multivariate cointegration techniques to develop a vector error correction model useful for investigating the long-run effects of external debt service on GNP level. Moreover, the information on cointegration (Johansen ,1988 and Johansen &Juselius ,1990) in variables are taken into consideration in specifying the correct model. We apply our methodology to Turkey and show how external debt service is having a negative short -run impact on economic growth. The results also show that there is a uni-directional causal relationship between debt service and GNP level.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its journal Central Bank Review.

Volume (Year): 2 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 39-64

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Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:2:y:2002:i:1:p:39-64

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Related research

Keywords: Turkey; External Debt; Cointegration; Causality;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Erbil, Can & Salman, Ferhan, 2006. "Revealing Turkey's public debt burden: A transparent payments approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 825-835, October.
  2. Erdal Karagol, 2004. "A Critical Review of External Debt and Economic Growth Relationship: A Lesson for Indebtedness Countries," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 4(1), pages 69-78.
  3. Luke, Okafor & Joanna, Tyrowicz, 2008. "Foreign Debt and Domestic Savings In Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 14819, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Erdal Karagol, 2006. "The Relationship Between External Debt, Defence Expenditures And Gnp Revisited: The Case Of Turkey," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 47-57.
  5. Luke Emeka Okafor & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2010. "Saving less when there is more foreign lending? Foreign debt and savings in developing countries," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 213-223.
  6. Ertunc Alioglu & Can Erbil & Ferhan Salman, 2004. "Revealing Turkey’s Public Debt Burden: A Transparent Payments Approach," Public Economics 0409004, EconWPA.

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