The Causality Analysis of External Debt Service and GNP : The Case of Turkey
AbstractIt is argued that debt service burden has a negative impact on investment and capital accumulation. The main reason is that the greater percentage of reserves (foreign currency) goes to meet debt service and there will be a reduction in external capital because of a decrease in creditworthiness. This paper extends the model of Cunningham (1992) and uses multivariate cointegration techniques to develop a vector error correction model useful for investigating the long-run effects of external debt service on GNP level. Moreover, the information on cointegration (Johansen ,1988 and Johansen &Juselius ,1990) in variables are taken into consideration in specifying the correct model. We apply our methodology to Turkey and show how external debt service is having a negative short -run impact on economic growth. The results also show that there is a uni-directional causal relationship between debt service and GNP level.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its journal Central Bank Review.
Volume (Year): 2 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Head Office, Istiklal Cad. 10 Ulus, 06100 Ankara
Phone: (90 312) 507 5000
Fax: (90 312) 507 5640
Web page: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/
More information through EDIRC
Turkey; External Debt; Cointegration; Causality;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
- H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
- Ram, Rati, 1986. "Government Size and Economic Growth: A New Framework and Some Evidencefrom Cross-Section and Time-Series Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 191-203, March.
- Merih Celasun & Dani Rodrik, 1989. "Turkish Experience with Debt: Macroeconomic Policy and Performance," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and the World Economy, pages 193-211 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Krueger, Anne O., 1987. "Origins of the developing countries' debt crisis : 1970 to 1982," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 165-187, October.
- Roger Perman, 1991. "Cointegration: An Introduction to the Literature," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 3-30, September.
- Biswas, Basudeb & Ram, Rati, 1986. "Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: An Augmented Model and Further Evidence," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(2), pages 361-72, January.
- Selami Sezgin, 1997. "Country survey X: Defence spending in Turkey," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 381-409.
- Steven B. Kamin & Robert B. Kahn & Ross Levine, 1989. "External debt and developing country growth," International Finance Discussion Papers 352, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ghatak, Subrata & Milner, Chris & Utkulu, Utku, 1995. " Trade Liberalisation and Endogenous Growth: Some Evidence for Turkey," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 28(2-3), pages 147-67.
- Borensztein, Eduardo, 1990. "Debt overhang, credit rationing and investment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 315-335, April.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Daniel Levy, 2005. "Capital Stock Depreciation, Tax Rules, and Composition of Aggregate Investment," Others 0505007, EconWPA.
- Khalifa Ghali, 1998. "Public investment and private capital formation in a vector error-correction model of growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 837-844.
- Faini, Riccardo & de Melo, Jaime, 1990. "Adjustment, investment, and the real exchange rate in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 473, The World Bank.
- Metwally, M. M. & Tamaschke, Rick, 1994. "The interaction among foreign debt, capital flows, and growth: Case studies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 597-608, December.
- Christos Kollias, 1995. "Preliminary findings on the economic effects of Greek military expenditure," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 16-18.
- Bert Hofman & Helmut Reisen, 1991. "Some evidence on debt-related determinants of investment and consumption in heavily indebted countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 281-299, June.
- Hall, S G, 1989. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Cointegration Vectors: An Example of the Johansen Procedure," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(2), pages 213-18, March.
- Luke Emeka Okafor & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2008.
"Foreign Debt and Domestic Savings in Developing Countries,"
2008-06, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
- Luke, Okafor & Joanna, Tyrowicz, 2008. "Foreign Debt and Domestic Savings In Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 14819, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Luke Emeka Okafor & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2010. "Saving less when there is more foreign lending? Foreign debt and savings in developing countries," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 213-223.
- Ertunc Alioglu & Can Erbil & Ferhan Salman, 2004.
"Revealing Turkey’s Public Debt Burden : A Transparent Payments Approach,"
0413, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Erbil, Can & Salman, Ferhan, 2006. "Revealing Turkey's public debt burden: A transparent payments approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 825-835, October.
- Ertunc Alioglu & Can Erbil & Ferhan Salman, 2004. "Revealing Turkeyâ€™s Public Debt Burden: A Transparent Payments Approach," Public Economics 0409004, EconWPA.
- Erdal Karagol, 2004. "A Critical Review of External Debt and Economic Growth Relationship: A Lesson for Indebtedness Countries," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 4(1), pages 69-78.
- Erdal Karagol, 2006. "The Relationship Between External Debt, Defence Expenditures And Gnp Revisited: The Case Of Turkey," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 47-57.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gulhanim Kayatas).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.