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Government Expenditures, Military Spending and Economic Growth: Causality Evidence from Egypt, Israel and Syria

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Author Info
Suleiman Abu-Bader () (Department of Economics, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev)
Aamer Abu-Qarn () (Department of Economics, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev)

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Abstract

This study uses multivariate cointegration and variance decomposition techniques to investigate the causal relationship between government expenditures and economic growth for Egypt, Israel and Syria, for the past three decades. When testing for causality within a bivariate system of total government spending and economic growth, we find bi-directional causality from government spending to economic growth with a negative long-term relationship between the two variables. However, when testing for causality within a trivariate system ¬– the share of government civilian expenditures in GDP, military burden and economic growth – we find that the military burden negatively affects economic growth for all the countries, and that civilian government expenditures cause positive economic growth in Israel and Egypt.

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File URL: http://www.econ.bgu.ac.il/papers/163.pdf
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File Function: First version, 2003
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 163.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Policy Modeling, 25(6-7), September 2003, pages 567-583
Handle: RePEc:bgu:wpaper:163

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Related research
Keywords: Middle East; economic growth; government expenditure; military burden; Granger causality and error correction models;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O23 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Sena Eken, 1997. "Fiscal Policy and Growth in the Middle East and North Africa Region," IMF Working Papers 97/101, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Joerding, Wayne, 1986. "Economic growth and defense spending : Granger Causality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 35-40, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Dakurah, A. Henry & Davies, Stephen P. & Sampath, Rajan K., 2001. "Defense spending and economic growth in developing countries: A causality analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 651-658, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Lim, David, 1983. "Another Look at Growth and Defense in Less Developed Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(2), pages 377-84, January.
  8. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Swaroop, Vinaya & Heng-fu, Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 313-344, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S103-26, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Benoit, Emile, 1978. "Growth and Defense in Developing Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(2), pages 271-80, January.
  12. Kolluri, Bharat R & Panik, Michael J & Wahab, Mahmoud S, 2000. "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence from G7 Countries," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 1059-68, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Biswas, Basudeb & Ram, Rati, 1986. "Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: An Augmented Model and Further Evidence," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(2), pages 361-72, January.
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  15. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-83, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Jacques Poot, 2000. "A Synthesis of Empirical Research on the Impact of Government onLong-Run Growth," Growth and Change, Gatton College of Business and Economics, University of Kentucky, vol. 31(4), pages 516-546. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2007. "The Military Expenditure-External Debt Nexus: New Evidence From A Panel Of Middle Eastern Countries," Monash Economics Working Papers 17/07, Monash University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Aamer S. Abu-Qarn & Suleiman Abu-Bader, 2004. "The validity of the ELG hypothesis in the MENA region: cointegration and error correction model analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(15), pages 1685-1695, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Aamer Abu-Qarn & Suleiman Abu-Bader, 2007. "Structural Breaks in Military Expenditures: Evidence for Egypt, Israel, Jordan and Syria," Working Papers 231, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jülide Yildirim† & Selami Sezgin & Nadir Öcal, 2005. "Military Expenditure And Economic Growth In Middle Eastern Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 283-295, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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