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Debt, growth and inflation in large European economies: a vector auto-regression analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Majid Taghavi

    (Economics Division, University of Northumbria at Newcastle, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 8ST, UK)

Abstract

This paper attempts to empirically test the hypothesis that whether debt matters in the EU. This has been performed by examining the potential adverse effects of debt in large European economies on investment, inflation and growth. Using the hybrid cointegration and vector autoregressive models, the findings, based on the period 1970-97, suggest that debt causes significant adverse effects on investment, but its impact on growth is not clear-cut. Moreover, debt appears to be inflationary in most cases in the long run, though produces no clear short run pattern on inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Majid Taghavi, 2000. "Debt, growth and inflation in large European economies: a vector auto-regression analysis," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 159-173.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:10:y:2000:i:1:p:159-173
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Akingbade U. Aimola & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, "undated". "Public Debt and Inflation: Empirical Evidence from Ghana," Working Papers AESRIWP06, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI).
    2. Nguyen Van Bon, 2015. "The relationship between public debt and inflation in developing countries: Empirical evidence based on difference panel GMM," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(9), pages 128-142, September.
    3. Akingbade U. Aimola & Nicholas M. Odhiambo & Christian Nsiah, 2021. "Public debt and inflation nexus in Nigeria: An ARDL bounds test approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 1921905-192, January.
    4. Naeem AKRAM*, 2017. "Role of Public Debt in Economic Growth of Sri Lanka: An ARDL Approach," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 27(2), pages 189-212.
    5. Godwin Essang Esu,(PhD), 2023. "Fiscal Imbalances, Economic Growth and Macroeconomic Stability in Nigeria," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(8), pages 887-901, August.
    6. Van Bon Nguyen, 2022. "Does governance matter for the public debt–inflation relationship in developed countries? Panel quantile regression approach," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(4), pages 1153-1173, December.
    7. Aimola Akingbade U. & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2020. "Public Debt and Inflation: A Review of International Literature," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 20(1), pages 9-24, June.
    8. Akingbade U. Aimola & Nicholas M. Odhiambo & Christian Nsiah, 2021. "Public debt and inflation nexus in Nigeria: An ARDL bounds test approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 1921905-192, January.
    9. Aimola Akingbade U. & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2022. "Is the effect of public debt on inflation symmetric or asymmetric? Evidence from the Gambia," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 8(1), pages 41-57, June.
    10. Busato, Francesco & Albanese, Marina & Varlese, Monica, 2022. "Inflation-based fiscal consolidation: a DSGE approach," MPRA Paper 113838, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Naeem Akram, 2013. "Empirical examination of debt and growth nexus in South Asian countries," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 20(2), pages 29-52, December.
    12. Francesco Busato & Marina Albanese & Monica Varlese, 2022. "The impact of monetary policy shock on public debt: a DSGE approach," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 76(3), pages 17-28, July-Sept.
    13. Andreas Nastansky & Alexander Mehnert & Hans Gerhard Strohe, 2014. "A Vector Error Correction Model for the Relationship between Public Debt and Inflation in Germany," Statistische Diskussionsbeiträge 51, Universität Potsdam, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    14. Esat Durguti & Nexhat Kryeziu & Emine Gashi, 2020. "How Does the Budget Deficit Affect Inflation Rate-Evidence from Western Balkans," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 9(1), pages 01-10, January.
    15. Aimola, Akingbade U & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2021. "Public debt and inflation: Empirical evidence from Ghana," Working Papers 27063, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration - Convergence - Debt ratio - Deficit ratio - Vector autoregression;

    JEL classification:

    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables

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