IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/gpprii/v46y2021i4d10.1057_s41288-020-00192-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does economic policy uncertainty matter for insurance development? Evidence from 16 OECD countries

Author

Listed:
  • Nguyen Phuc Canh

    (University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City)

  • Udomsak Wongchoti

    (Massey University)

  • Su Dinh Thanh

    (University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City)

Abstract

We examine the influence of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the liveliness of local insurance markets across 16 OECD countries during the 1998–2017 period. Our static panel data estimations suggest that global policy uncertainty is negatively associated with the life insurance development of a country, as measured by national life insurance penetration (gross insurance premium per GDP in %). Meanwhile, such uncertainty does not significantly affect non-life insurance development in our sample. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the impacts of global EPU on life insurance markets are particularly stronger in periods of increasing EPU.

Suggested Citation

  • Nguyen Phuc Canh & Udomsak Wongchoti & Su Dinh Thanh, 2021. "Does economic policy uncertainty matter for insurance development? Evidence from 16 OECD countries," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 46(4), pages 614-648, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:gpprii:v:46:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1057_s41288-020-00192-5
    DOI: 10.1057/s41288-020-00192-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41288-020-00192-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41288-020-00192-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tsangyao Chang & Chien-Chiang Lee & Chi-Hung Chang, 2014. "Does insurance activity promote economic growth? Further evidence based on bootstrap panel Granger causality test," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(12), pages 1187-1210, December.
    2. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    3. Donghui Li & Fariborz Moshirian & Pascal Nguyen & Timothy Wee, 2007. "The Demand for Life Insurance in OECD Countries," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 74(3), pages 637-652, September.
    4. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    5. Jean-Louis Combes & Tahsin Saadi-Sedik, 2006. "How does trade openness influence budget deficits in developing countries?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(8), pages 1401-1416.
    6. Davis, Donald, 1996. "Trade Liberalization And Income Distribution," Harvard Institute for International Development (HIID) Papers 294371, Harvard University, Kennedy School of Government.
    7. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
    8. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    9. Maria Teresa Medeiros Garcia, 2012. "Determinants of the property‐liability insurance market: evidence from Portugal," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(4), pages 440-450, August.
    10. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    11. Alexander Karaivanov & Fernando Martin, 2015. "Dynamic Optimal Insurance and Lack of Commitment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(2), pages 287-305, April.
    12. Liu, Guanchun & Zhang, Chengsi, 2016. "The dynamic linkage between insurance activities and banking credit: Some new evidence from global countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 40-53.
    13. Lawson, Tony, 1985. "Uncertainty and Economic Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(380), pages 909-927, December.
    14. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    15. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    16. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    17. Colombo, Valentina, 2013. "Economic policy uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for the Euro area?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 39-42.
    18. Kitao, Sagiri, 2014. "A life-cycle model of unemployment and disability insurance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-18.
    19. Drobetz, Wolfgang & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Janzen, Malte, 2018. "Policy uncertainty, investment, and the cost of capital," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-45.
    20. Menahem E. Yaari, 1965. "Uncertain Lifetime, Life Insurance, and the Theory of the Consumer," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 32(2), pages 137-150.
    21. Li, Xiao-Ming & Zhang, Bing & Gao, Ruzhao, 2015. "Economic policy uncertainty shocks and stock–bond correlations: Evidence from the US market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 91-96.
    22. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Tran, Vuong Thao, 2018. "Can economic policy uncertainty predict stock returns? Global evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 134-150.
    23. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    24. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    25. Beenstock, Michael & Dickinson, Gerry & Khajuria, Sajay, 1986. "The determination of life premiums: An international cross-section analysis 1970-1981," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 261-270, October.
    26. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2," North American Stata Users' Group Meetings 2006 8, Stata Users Group.
    27. Donald R. Davis, 1996. "Trade Liberalization and Income Distribution," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1769, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    28. Arouri, Mohamed & Estay, Christophe & Rault, Christophe & Roubaud, David, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock markets: Long-run evidence from the US," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 136-141.
    29. Rudolf Enz, 2000. "The S-Curve Relation Between Per-Capita Income and Insurance Penetration," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 25(3), pages 396-406, July.
    30. Gissler, Stefan & Oldfather, Jeremy & Ruffino, Doriana, 2016. "Lending on hold: Regulatory uncertainty and bank lending standards," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 89-101.
    31. Canh, Nguyen Phuc & Binh, Nguyen Thanh & Thanh, Su Dinh & Schinckus, Christophe, 2020. "Determinants of foreign direct investment inflows: The role of economic policy uncertainty," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 159-172.
    32. Maria Teresa Medeiros Garcia, 2012. "Determinants of the property-liability insurance market: evidence from Portugal," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 440-450, December.
    33. Camerer, Colin & Weber, Martin, 1992. "Recent Developments in Modeling Preferences: Uncertainty and Ambiguity," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 325-370, October.
    34. Mei, Dexiang & Zeng, Qing & Zhang, Yaojie & Hou, Wenjing, 2018. "Does US Economic Policy Uncertainty matter for European stock markets volatility?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 512(C), pages 215-221.
    35. JaeBin Ahn & Era Dabla‐Norris & Romain Duval & Bingjie Hu & Lamin Njie, 2019. "Reassessing the productivity gains from trade liberalization," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 130-154, February.
    36. Alhassan, Abdul Latif & Biekpe, Nicholas, 2016. "Determinants of life insurance consumption in Africa," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 17-27.
    37. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    38. Feyen, Erik & Lester, Rodney & Rocha, Roberto, 2011. "What drives the development of the insurance sector ? an empirical analysis based on a panel of developed and developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5572, The World Bank.
    39. Rangan Gupta & Amine Lahiani & Chi-Chuan Lee & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2019. "Asymmetric dynamics of insurance premium: the impacts of output and economic policy uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1959-1978, December.
    40. Thorsten Beck & Ian Webb, 2003. "Economic, Demographic, and Institutional Determinants of Life Insurance Consumption across Countries," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 17(1), pages 51-88, June.
    41. Canh, Nguyen Phuc & Thanh, Su Dinh, 2020. "Financial development and the shadow economy: A multi-dimensional analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 37-54.
    42. Bailey, Delia & Katz, Jonathan N., 2011. "Implementing Panel-Corrected Standard Errors in R: The pcse Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 42(c01).
    43. Ftiti, Zied & Hadhri, Sinda, 2019. "Can economic policy uncertainty, oil prices, and investor sentiment predict Islamic stock returns? A multi-scale perspective," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 40-55.
    44. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin, 2020. "Insurance and economic policy uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    45. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2017. "News, Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations (No News is Good News)," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 132, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    46. Mumtaz, Haroon, 2018. "Does uncertainty affect real activity? Evidence from state-level data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 127-130.
    47. John, Felix & Toth, Russell & Frank, Karin & Groeneveld, Jürgen & Müller, Birgit, 2019. "Ecological Vulnerability Through Insurance? Potential Unintended Consequences of Livestock Drought Insurance," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 357-368.
    48. Canh Phuc Nguyen & Christophe Schinckus & Thanh Dinh Su, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and demand for international tourism: An empirical study," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1415-1430, December.
    49. Liu, Li & Zhang, Tao, 2015. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 99-105.
    50. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    51. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chiu, Yi-Bin & Chang, Chi-Hung, 2013. "Insurance demand and country risks: A nonlinear panel data analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 68-85.
    52. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Chi-Chuan & Zeng, Jhih-Hong & Hsu, Yu-Ling, 2017. "Peer bank behavior, economic policy uncertainty, and leverage decision of financial institutions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 79-91.
    53. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr & Lambe, Brendan John, 2015. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive CDS spreads?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 447-458.
    54. Hakansson, Nils H, 1969. "Optimal Investment and Consumption Strategies under Risk, an Uncertain Lifetime, and Insurance," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 10(3), pages 443-466, October.
    55. Sebastian Schich, 2010. "Insurance companies and the financial crisis," OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(2), pages 123-151.
    56. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
    57. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca & Sala, Luca, 2017. "News, Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 12139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    58. Canh Phuc NGUYEN & Christophe SCHINCKUS, 2020. "The Spending Behavior of Government through the Lenses of Global Uncertainty and Economic Integration," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 35-57, July.
    59. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xiang, Feiyun & Chang, Tsangyao & Jiang, Shi-jie, 2023. "Economic and climate policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and life insurance premiums in China: A quantile ARDL approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nguyen Phuc Canh & Nguyen Thanh Binh & Su Dinh Thanh & Christophe Schinckus, 2020. "Determinants of foreign direct investment inflows: The role of economic policy uncertainty," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 161, pages 159-172.
    2. Canh Phuc Nguyen & Thanh Dinh Su, 2022. "When ‘uncertainty’ becomes ‘unknown’: Influences of economic uncertainty on the shadow economy," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(3), pages 677-716, September.
    3. Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Le, Thai-Ha & Su, Thanh Dinh, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and credit growth: Evidence from a global sample," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. Ramesh Bommadevara & Akshay Sakharkar, 2021. "Do Good Institutions and Economic Uncertainty Matter to Foreign Direct Investment?," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 11(6), pages 471-487, June.
    5. Canh Phuc Nguyen & Christophe Schinckus & Thanh Dinh Su, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and demand for international tourism: An empirical study," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1415-1430, December.
    6. Mamadou Bah & Nelson Abila, 2024. "Institutional determinants of insurance penetration in Africa," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 49(1), pages 138-179, January.
    7. Alhassan, Abdul Latif & Biekpe, Nicholas, 2016. "Determinants of life insurance consumption in Africa," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 17-27.
    8. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin, 2020. "Insurance and economic policy uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    9. Emmanuel Owusu-Sekyere & Reneé van Eyden & Francis M Kemegue, 2014. "Remittances and the Dutch Disease in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Dynamic Panel Approach," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 8(3), September.
    10. Sung, Bongsuk & Song, Woo-Yong & Park, Sang-Do, 2018. "How foreign direct investment affects CO2 emission levels in the Chinese manufacturing industry: Evidence from panel data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 320-331.
    11. Caixe, Daniel Ferreira, 2022. "Corporate governance and investment sensitivity to policy uncertainty in Brazil," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PB).
    12. Nguyen, Canh Phuc, 2022. "Uncertainty and gender inequality: A global investigation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 31-47.
    13. Canh P. Nguyen & Christophe Schinckus & Dinh Su Thanh, 2020. "Economic Fluctuations And The Shadow Economy: A Global Study," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(03), pages 1-24, September.
    14. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & Sahar Bahmani & Sara E. Bennett & John H. Hall, 2017. "Insurance–growth nexus and macroeconomic determinants: evidence from middle-income countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1337-1366, June.
    15. Bach Nguyen & Christophe Schinckus & Nguyen Phuc Canh & Su Dinh Thanh, 2021. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Entrepreneurship: A Bad for a Good?," Journal of Entrepreneurship and Innovation in Emerging Economies, Entrepreneurship Development Institute of India, vol. 30(1), pages 81-133, March.
    16. Goya, Daniel, 2020. "The exchange rate and export variety: A cross-country analysis with long panel estimators," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 649-665.
    17. Nguyen, Canh Phuc, 2022. "Does economic complexity matter for the shadow economy?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 210-227.
    18. Dimelis, Sophia P. & Papaioannou, Sotiris K., 2011. "ICT growth effects at the industry level: A comparison between the US and the EU," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 37-50, March.
    19. Benlagha, Noureddine & Hemrit, Wael, 2020. "Internet use and insurance growth: evidence from a panel of OECD countries," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    20. Rudra P. Pradhan & Saurav Dash & Rana Pratap Maradana & Manju Jayakumar & Kunal Gaurav, 2017. "Insurance market density and economic growth in Eurozone countries: the granger causality approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 1-24, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:gpprii:v:46:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1057_s41288-020-00192-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.