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Cross-cutting scenarios and strategies for designing decarbonization pathways in the transport sector toward carbon neutrality

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  • Runsen Zhang

    (Hiroshima University
    Social Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies)

  • Tatsuya Hanaoka

    (Social Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies)

Abstract

The transport sector will play a pivotal role in achieving China’s carbon neutrality goal by 2060. This study develops a regional transport-energy integrated model to analyze the long-term pathways and strategies toward the carbon-neutral ground transport sector in China. A set of scenarios are created to identify the effectiveness and feasibility of low-carbon policy measures based on the well-known transport strategies within the Avoid–Shift–Improve framework. Our simulations shed light on synergistic coupling and trade-offs among different strategies and instruments for prescribing a desirable mix of policy measures that maximize the synergies and minimize the trade-offs. Here, we show that a region-specific policy package designed from a balanced perspective under the Avoid–Shift–Improve framework has the potential to realize a deep decarbonization in the transport sector and will greatly assist in achieving China’s carbon neutrality by 2060.

Suggested Citation

  • Runsen Zhang & Tatsuya Hanaoka, 2022. "Cross-cutting scenarios and strategies for designing decarbonization pathways in the transport sector toward carbon neutrality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-31354-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-31354-9
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    5. Ye, Hui & Wu, Fei & Yan, Tiantian & Li, Zexuan & Zheng, Zhengnan & Zhou, Dequn & Wang, Qunwei, 2024. "Decarbonizing urban passenger transportation: Policy effectiveness and interactions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
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    8. Zhang, Bin & Xin, Qingyao & Chen, Siyuan & Yang, Zhiying & Wang, Zhaohua, 2024. "Urban spatial structure and commuting-related carbon emissions in China: Do monocentric cities emit more?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    9. Yuan, Hong & Ma, Minda & Zhou, Nan & Xie, Hui & Ma, Zhili & Xiang, Xiwang & Ma, Xin, 2024. "Battery electric vehicle charging in China: Energy demand and emissions trends in the 2020s," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 365(C).
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    11. Chunbo Zhang & Xiang Zhao & Romain Sacchi & Fengqi You, 2023. "Trade-off between critical metal requirement and transportation decarbonization in automotive electrification," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.

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