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The transportation sector and low-carbon growth pathways: modelling urban, infrastructure, and spatial determinants of mobility

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  • Henri-David Waisman
  • Celine Guivarch
  • Franck Lecocq

Abstract

This article contributes to the controversial debate over the effect of spatial organization on CO 2 emissions by investigating the potential of infrastructure measures that favour lower mobility in achieving the transition to a low-carbon economy. The energy-economy-environment (E3) IMACLIM-R model is used to provide a detailed representation of passenger and freight transportation. Unlike many of the E3 models used to simulate mitigation options, IMACLIM-R represents both the technological and behavioural determinants of mobility. By comparing business-as-usual, carbon price only, and carbon price combined with transport policy scenarios, it is demonstrated that the measures that foster a modal shift towards low-carbon modes and a decoupling of mobility needs from economic activity significantly modify the sectoral distribution of mitigation efforts and reduce the level of carbon tax necessary to reach a given climate target relative to a 'carbon price only' policy. Policy relevance Curbing carbon emissions from transport activities is necessary in order to reach mitigation targets, but it poses a challenge for policy makers. The transport sector has two peculiarities: a weak ability to react to standard pricing measures (which encourages richer policy interventions) and a dependence on long-lived infrastructure (which imposes a delay between policy interventions and effective action). To address these problems, a framework is proposed for analysing the role of transport-specific measures adopted complementarily to carbon pricing in the context of international climate policies. Consideration is given to alternative approaches such as infrastructure measures designed to control mobility through less mobility-intensive denser agglomerations, investment reorientation towards public mode, and logistics reorganization towards less mobility-dependent production processes. Such measures can significantly reduce transport emissions in the long term and hence would moderate an increase in the carbon price and reduce its more important detrimental impacts on the economy.

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  • Henri-David Waisman & Celine Guivarch & Franck Lecocq, 2013. "The transportation sector and low-carbon growth pathways: modelling urban, infrastructure, and spatial determinants of mobility," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(sup01), pages 106-129, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:tcpoxx:v:13:y:2013:i:sup01:p:106-129
    DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2012.735916
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    1. Hourcade, Jean-Charles, 1993. "Modelling long-run scenarios : Methodology lessons from a prospective study on a low CO2 intensive country," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 309-326, March.
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    1. Daly, Hannah E. & Ramea, Kalai & Chiodi, Alessandro & Yeh, Sonia & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Gallachóir, Brian Ó, 2014. "Incorporating travel behaviour and travel time into TIMES energy system models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 429-439.
    2. Tattini, Jacopo & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2018. "Reaching carbon neutral transport sector in Denmark – Evidence from the incorporation of modal shift into the TIMES energy system modeling framework," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 571-583.
    3. Ruben Bibas & C. Cassen & Renaud Crassous & Céline Guivarch & Meriem Hamdi-Cherif & Jean Charles Hourcade & Florian Leblanc & Aurélie Méjean & Eoin Ó Broin & Julie Rozenberg & Olivier Sassi & Adrien V, 2022. "IMpact Assessment of CLIMate policies with IMACLIM-R 1.1. Model documentation version 1.1," Working Papers hal-03702627, HAL.
    4. Vaninsky, Alexander, 2014. "Factorial decomposition of CO2 emissions: A generalized Divisia index approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 389-400.
    5. Salvucci, Raffaele & Tattini, Jacopo & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Lehtilä, Antti & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2018. "Modelling transport modal shift in TIMES models through elasticities of substitution," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 740-751.
    6. Faissal Jelti & Amine Allouhi & Kheira Anissa Tabet Aoul, 2023. "Transition Paths towards a Sustainable Transportation System: A Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-25, October.
    7. Ruben Bibas & Aurélie Méjean, 2014. "Potential and limitations of bioenergy for low carbon transitions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 731-761, April.
    8. Tattini, Jacopo & Ramea, Kalai & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Yang, Christopher & Mulholland, Eamonn & Yeh, Sonia & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2018. "Improving the representation of modal choice into bottom-up optimization energy system models – The MoCho-TIMES model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 265-282.
    9. Pye, Steve & Daly, Hannah, 2015. "Modelling sustainable urban travel in a whole systems energy model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 97-107.
    10. Muratori, Matteo & Jadun, Paige & Bush, Brian & Bielen, David & Vimmerstedt, Laura & Gonder, Jeff & Gearhart, Chris & Arent, Doug, 2020. "Future integrated mobility-energy systems: A modeling perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    11. Christophe Cassen & Meriem Hamdi-Chérif & Giancarlo Cotella & Jacopo Toniolo & Patrizia Lombardi & Jean-Charles Hourcade, 2018. "Low Carbon Scenarios for Europe: An Evaluation of Upscaling Low Carbon Experiments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-18, March.
    12. J.-F. Mercure & A. Lam & S. Billington & H. Pollitt, 2018. "Integrated assessment modelling as a positive science: private passenger road transport policies to meet a climate target well below 2 ∘C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 109-129, November.
    13. Florian Leblanc & C. Cassen & Thierry Brunelle & Patrice Dumas & Aurélie Méjean, 2014. "Globis final report on Integrated Scenarios D30," CIRED Working Papers hal-01300545, HAL.
    14. Aurélie Méjean & Franck Lecocq & Yacob Mulugetta, 2015. "Equity, burden sharing and development pathways: reframing international climate negotiations," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 387-402, November.
    15. Claire Nicolas & Stéphane Tchung-Ming & Emmanuel Hache, 2016. "Energy transition in transportation under cost uncertainty, an assessment based on robust optimization," Working Papers hal-02475943, HAL.
    16. Runsen Zhang & Tatsuya Hanaoka, 2022. "Cross-cutting scenarios and strategies for designing decarbonization pathways in the transport sector toward carbon neutrality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    17. Zhang, Runsen & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Dai, Hancheng & Hanaoka, Tatsuya, 2018. "Contribution of the transport sector to climate change mitigation: Insights from a global passenger transport model coupled with a computable general equilibrium model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 76-88.
    18. Steve Pye & Chris Bataille, 2016. "Improving deep decarbonization modelling capacity for developed and developing country contexts," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(sup1), pages 27-46, June.
    19. Xu, Jin-Hua & Guo, Jian-Feng & Peng, Binbin & Nie, Hongguang & Kemp, Rene, 2020. "Energy growth sources and future energy-saving potentials in passenger transportation sector in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    20. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Daniels, Chux & AbdulRafiu, Abbas, 2022. "Transitioning to electrified, automated and shared mobility in an African context: A comparative review of Johannesburg, Kigali, Lagos and Nairobi," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    21. Zhang, Runsen & Zhang, Junyi, 2021. "Long-term pathways to deep decarbonization of the transport sector in the post-COVID world," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 28-36.
    22. Cui, Qiang & Li, Ye, 2015. "An empirical study on the influencing factors of transportation carbon efficiency: Evidences from fifteen countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 209-217.
    23. Siegmeier, Jan, 2015. "Keeping Pigou on tracks: second-best carbon pricing and infrastructure provision," MPRA Paper 69046, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Jan 2016.

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