IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mnb/finrev/v21y2022i1p141-163.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Answering Causal Questions Using Observational Data - Achievements of the 2021 Nobel Laureates in Economics

Author

Listed:
  • Zoltan Hermann

    (Centre for Economic and Regional Research, Corvinus University of Budapest)

  • Hedvig Horvath

    (University College London)

  • Attila Lindner

    (University College London)

Abstract

In the 1980s and 1990s, the field of labour economics was at the forefront of combining economic theory, high-level econometric methods and new data sources. The 2021 Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to David Card, Joshua Angrist and Guido Imbens, who played key roles in this research, for their "empirical contributions to labour economics" (Card) and "methodological contributions to the analysis of causality relationships" (Angrist and Imbens), according to the citation. These methodological innovations are now applied in all fields of economics and in many other social science disciplines. Credible empirical analysis has transformed economics from a rather theoretical discipline into a discipline dominated by empirical results, where even the most fundamental theories can be rejected on the basis of empirical results. In this paper, we review the main methodological achievements of this period, also known as the credibility revolution, illustrated by some economic applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Zoltan Hermann & Hedvig Horvath & Attila Lindner, 2022. "Answering Causal Questions Using Observational Data - Achievements of the 2021 Nobel Laureates in Economics," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 21(1), pages 141-163.
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:finrev:v:21:y:2022:i:1:p:141-163
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://en-hitelintezetiszemle.mnb.hu/letoltes/fer-21-1-e1-hermann-horvath-lindner.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. LaLonde, Robert J, 1986. "Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 604-620, September.
    2. Charles Brown & Curtis Gilroy & Andrew Kohen, 1982. "The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Employment and Unemployment: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 0846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Angrist, Joshua D, 1990. "Lifetime Earnings and the Vietnam Era Draft Lottery: Evidence from Social Security Administrative Records," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 313-336, June.
    4. Alan B. Krueger & David Card, 2000. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1397-1420, December.
    5. Brown, Charles & Gilroy, Curtis & Kohen, Andrew, 1982. "The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Employment and Unemployment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 487-528, June.
    6. Trostel, Philip & Walker, Ian & Woolley, Paul, 2002. "Estimates of the economic return to schooling for 28 countries," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, February.
    7. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    8. Atila Abdulkadiroğlu & Joshua Angrist & Parag Pathak, 2014. "The Elite Illusion: Achievement Effects at Boston and New York Exam Schools," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(1), pages 137-196, January.
    9. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number minc74-1, March.
    10. Card, David, 1999. "The causal effect of education on earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 30, pages 1801-1863, Elsevier.
    11. Angrist, Joshua D, 1990. "Lifetime Earnings and the Vietnam Era Draft Lottery: Evidence from Social Security Administrative Records: Errata," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1284-1286, December.
    12. Roland G. Fryer & Steven D. Levitt, 2006. "The Black-White Test Score Gap Through Third Grade," American Law and Economics Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 249-281.
    13. Jacob Mincer, 1958. "Investment in Human Capital and Personal Income Distribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 281-281.
    14. Péter Biró & Gyula Magyarkuti, 2021. "The Work of Milgrom and Wilson in the Theory and Practical Application of Auctions," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 20(1), pages 127-151.
    15. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling and Earnings," NBER Chapters, in: Schooling, Experience, and Earnings, pages 41-63, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Dietmar Meyer, 2019. "Optimising Nobel Prize Laureates," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 18(1), pages 125-141.
    17. Ellora Derenoncourt, 2022. "Can You Move to Opportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(2), pages 369-408, February.
    18. Gábor Neszveda, 2018. "The Contribution of Thaler to Behavioural Economics," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 17(1), pages 153-167.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2021. "Answering causal questions using observational data," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2021-2, Nobel Prize Committee.
    2. van der Klaauw, Bas, 2014. "From micro data to causality: Forty years of empirical labor economics," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 88-97.
    3. Machin, Stephen, 2014. "Developments in economics of education research," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 13-19.
    4. Fortin, Bernard & Ragued, Safa, 2017. "Does temporary interruption in postsecondary education induce a wage penalty? Evidence from Canada," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 108-122.
    5. Balestra, Simone & Backes-Gellner, Uschi, 2017. "Heterogeneous returns to education over the wage distribution: Who profits the most?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 89-105.
    6. Peter Hull & Michal Kolesár & Christopher Walters, 2022. "Labor by design: contributions of David Card, Joshua Angrist, and Guido Imbens," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(3), pages 603-645, July.
    7. Belzil, Christian, 2007. "The return to schooling in structural dynamic models: a survey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1059-1105, July.
    8. Idrisov, Georgiy (Идрисов, Георгий) & Taganov, B.V. (Таганов, Б.), 2016. "Research of the Effect of Growth of Openness of the Russian Economy on Income Inequality in Russia [Исследование Влияния Роста Открытости Российской Экономики На Неравенство Доходов Населения В Рос," Working Papers 3136, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    9. Jens Ruhose, 2015. "Microeconometric Analyses on Economic Consequences of Selective Migration," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 61.
    10. Polachek, Solomon W., 2008. "Earnings Over the Life Cycle: The Mincer Earnings Function and Its Applications," Foundations and Trends(R) in Microeconomics, now publishers, vol. 4(3), pages 165-272, April.
    11. John Bound & Sarah Turner, 2002. "Going to War and Going to College: Did World War II and the G.I. Bill Increase Educational Attainment for Returning Veterans?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(4), pages 784-815, October.
    12. Adrien Montalbo, 2019. "Education and economic development. The influence of primary schooling on municipalities in nineteenth-century France," PSE Working Papers halshs-02286126, HAL.
    13. Nikolov, Plamen & Jimi, Nusrat & Chang, Jerray, 2020. "The Importance of Cognitive Domains and the Returns to Schooling in South Africa: Evidence from Two Labor Surveys," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    14. Oancea, Bogdan & Pospisil, Richard & Dragoescu, Raluca, 2017. "The return to higher education: evidence from Romania," MPRA Paper 81720, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Adrien Montalbo, 2019. "Education and economic development. The influence of primary schooling on municipalities in nineteenth-century France," Working Papers halshs-02286126, HAL.
    16. Garcia-Mainar, Inmaculada & Montuenga-Gomez, Victor M., 2005. "Education returns of wage earners and self-employed workers: Portugal vs. Spain," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 161-170, April.
    17. Sajjad Haider Bhatti & Jean Bourdon & Muhammad Aslam, 2013. "Economic Returns to Education in France: OLS and Instrumental Variable Estimations," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 51-63, July-Dec.
    18. Theodore Koutmeridis, 2013. "The Market for "Rough Diamonds": Information, Finance and Wage Inequality," CDMA Working Paper Series 201307, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis, revised 14 Oct 2013.
    19. Thomas Dohmen & Armin Falk, 2010. "You Get What You Pay For: Incentives and Selection in the Education System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(546), pages 256-271, August.
    20. Gao, Wenshu & Smyth, Russell, 2011. "Economic returns to speaking 'standard Mandarin' among migrants in China's urban labour market," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 342-352, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    natural experiment; minimum wage; returns to education; instrumental variables; difference-in-differences; regression discontinuity design;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnb:finrev:v:21:y:2022:i:1:p:141-163. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Morvay Endre (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mnbgvhu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.