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A klímavédelmi események hatása a köztudatra és a tőkepiacra. Empirikus vizsgálat Google-trends- és ETF-adatokon
[The impact of climate events on public perception and capital markets. An empirical study on Google trends and ETF data]

Author

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  • Timár, Barnabás

Abstract

A tanulmány a klímavédelmi események hatását vizsgálja a köztudatra és a tőkepiacra. Először tíz klímaváltozáshoz kapcsolódó fogalom Google-trends-indexének alakulását, majd öt zöld- és öt szennyező iparági kitettségű ETF abnormális hozamát tekinti át az eseményelemzés standard nemzetközi módszertanával. A Google-trends adatain vizsgált tényezők jelentős részénél az események hatására kimutatható szignifikáns átlag feletti keresési érték. A további eredmények alapján azonban a klímavédelmi eseményeknek összességében nincs tendenciaszerű hatásuk a tőkepiacra. Minden eseménynél egyedi hatások láthatók, még a hasonlók is különböző irányú reakciókat válthatnak ki. A legjelentősebb események az IPCC-jelentés, az ENSZ 24. éghajlatváltozási konferenciája, az Egyesült Államok hivatalos kilépése a párizsi egyezményből és a glasgow-i klímasztrájk volt. Egységes iparági trendek nehezen határozhatók meg, a kedvező társadalmi felelősségű (ESG) részvények, valamint - meglepő módon - a dohány-, alkohol-, szerencsejáték- és repülőgép-ipari kitettségű ETF-ek esetében várhatunk átlagosan pozitív hatást, de ezeknek a hatásoknak a robusztussága is megkérdőjelezhető. Így a klímavédelmi eseményeknek a tőkepiacokra gyakorolt hatása nagyon korlátozott, aminek egyik magyarázata lehet a vizsgált tőkepiac hatékony működése.* Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: G17, G32, G41.

Suggested Citation

  • Timár, Barnabás, 2023. "A klímavédelmi események hatása a köztudatra és a tőkepiacra. Empirikus vizsgálat Google-trends- és ETF-adatokon [The impact of climate events on public perception and capital markets. An empirical," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 713-745.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:2130
    DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2023.7-8.713
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    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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