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Extinction risk from climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Chris D. Thomas

    (University of Leeds)

  • Alison Cameron

    (University of Leeds)

  • Rhys E. Green

    (Royal Society for the Protection of Birds
    University of Cambridge)

  • Michel Bakkenes

    (National Institute of Public Health and Environment)

  • Linda J. Beaumont

    (Macquarie University)

  • Yvonne C. Collingham

    (University of Durham, School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences)

  • Barend F. N. Erasmus

    (University of the Witwatersrand)

  • Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira

    (Centro de Referência em Informação Ambiental)

  • Alan Grainger

    (University of Leeds)

  • Lee Hannah

    (Conservation International)

  • Lesley Hughes

    (Macquarie University)

  • Brian Huntley

    (University of Durham, School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences)

  • Albert S. van Jaarsveld

    (University of Stellenbosch)

  • Guy F. Midgley

    (National Botanical Institute)

  • Lera Miles

    (University of Leeds
    UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre)

  • Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta

    (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México)

  • A. Townsend Peterson

    (University of Kansas)

  • Oliver L. Phillips

    (University of Leeds)

  • Stephen E. Williams

    (School of Tropical Biology, James Cook University)

Abstract

Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species1,2 and has been implicated in one species-level extinction3. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15–37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be ‘committed to extinction’. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (∼18%) than mid-range (∼24%) and maximum-change (∼35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.

Suggested Citation

  • Chris D. Thomas & Alison Cameron & Rhys E. Green & Michel Bakkenes & Linda J. Beaumont & Yvonne C. Collingham & Barend F. N. Erasmus & Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira & Alan Grainger & Lee Hannah & Lesle, 2004. "Extinction risk from climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 427(6970), pages 145-148, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:427:y:2004:i:6970:d:10.1038_nature02121
    DOI: 10.1038/nature02121
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