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Time-varying managerial overconfidence and pecking order preference

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  • Andrew Vivian

    (Loughborough University)

  • Bin Xu

    (University of Leeds)

Abstract

This paper examines whether managerial overconfidence enhances or weakens pecking order preference. We construct time-varying managerial words-based (i.e. tone of Chairman’s Statement) and action-based (i.e. firm investment and directors’ trading) overconfidence measures. Both optimistic tone and industry-adjusted investment have significant and negative impacts on the pecking order coefficient in the Shyam-Sunder and Myers (J Financ Econ 51:219–244, 1999) regression framework. Overconfident managers tend to use more equity than debt to finance deficits. This new evidence is consistent with the proposition that overconfident managers who underestimate the riskiness of future earnings believe that their debt (equity) is undervalued (overvalued) and therefore prefer equity to debt financing. Thus, managerial overconfidence can lead to a reverse pecking order preference. We also find that managerial overconfidence significantly weakens pecking order preference especially in firms with high earnings volatility and small firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Vivian & Bin Xu, 2018. "Time-varying managerial overconfidence and pecking order preference," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 799-835, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:50:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11156-017-0647-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-017-0647-8
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    2. Jennifer Kunz & Lara Sonnenholzner, 2023. "Managerial overconfidence: promoter of or obstacle to organizational resilience?," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 67-128, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Managerial overconfidence; Pecking order preference; Optimistic tone;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles

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