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Can extreme rainfall trigger democratic change? The role of flood-induced corruption

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Habibur Rahman

    (Deakin University)

  • Nejat Anbarci

    (Deakin University)

  • Prasad Sankar Bhattacharya

    (Deakin University)

  • Mehmet Ali Ulubaşoğlu

    (Deakin University)

Abstract

Using a new dataset of extreme rainfall covering 130 countries from 1979 to 2009, this paper investigates whether and how extreme rainfall-driven flooding affects democratic conditions. Our key finding indicates that extreme rainfall-induced flooding exerts two opposing effects on democracy. On one hand, flooding leads to corruption in the chains of emergency relief distribution and other post-disaster assistance, which in turn impels the citizenry to demand more democracy. On the other hand, flooding induces autocratic tendencies in incumbent regimes because efficient post-disaster management with no dissent, chaos or plunder might require government to undertake repressive actions. The net estimated effect is an improvement in democratic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Habibur Rahman & Nejat Anbarci & Prasad Sankar Bhattacharya & Mehmet Ali Ulubaşoğlu, 2017. "Can extreme rainfall trigger democratic change? The role of flood-induced corruption," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 331-358, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:171:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11127-017-0440-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-017-0440-1
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    4. Khurana, Ritika & Mugabe, Douglas & Etienne, Xiaoli L., 2018. "Do Climate Change Induced Natural Disasters Disrupt Legal System Integrity?," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274413, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
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    6. Khurana, Ritika & Mugabe, Douglas & Etienne, Xiaoli L., 2022. "Climate change, natural disasters, and institutional integrity," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Extreme rainfall shocks; Flood severity; Corruption; Democracy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O0 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - General
    • P0 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - General

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