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The Shocking Origins of Political Transitions: Evidence from Earthquakes

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  • Muhammad Habibur Rahman
  • Nejat Anbarci
  • Prasad Sankar Bhattacharya
  • Mehmet Ali Ulubaşoğlu

Abstract

Do earthquakes trigger political transitions? Using a rich panel dataset of 160 countries observed over 1950–2007, we find that earthquake shocks, measured in terms of the effect of ground‐motion amplitude on death toll, have two contradicting effects on political change. On the one hand, earthquakes drive transitions into democracy due to an affective shock, which we interpret to be the reaction of citizens by which they hold the incumbent government responsible for earthquake damages. On the other hand, earthquakes indirectly hasten transitions into a less democratic regime because they increase the income level contemporaneously, possibly due to short‐term emergency response and recovery expenditures, and thus, raising the opportunity cost of contesting the incumbent government. Overall, we show that, while not leading to a full‐fledged regime transition, earthquake shocks open a new democratic window of opportunity, but this window is narrowed by improved economic conditions.

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  • Muhammad Habibur Rahman & Nejat Anbarci & Prasad Sankar Bhattacharya & Mehmet Ali Ulubaşoğlu, 2017. "The Shocking Origins of Political Transitions: Evidence from Earthquakes," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(3), pages 796-823, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:83:y:2017:i:3:p:796-823
    DOI: 10.1002/soej.12180
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    Cited by:

    1. José García-Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2018. "Earthquakes and Terrorism: The Long Lasting Effect of Seismic Shocks," Working Papers 1020, Barcelona School of Economics.
    2. Voigt, Stefan, 2022. "Determinant of Social Norms," ILE Working Paper Series 58, University of Hamburg, Institute of Law and Economics.
    3. Houle, Christian & Kayser, Mark A. & Xiang, Jun, 2016. "Diffusion or Confusion? Clustered Shocks and the Conditional Diffusion of Democracy," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 687-726, October.
    4. José Garcia Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2018. "Earthquakes and terrorism: the long lasting effect of seismic shocks," Economics Working Papers 1599, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    5. Janus, Thorsten, 2023. "Short and long run democracy diffusion," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

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