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The impact of closeness on turnout: An empirical relation based on a study of a two-round ballot

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  • Christine Fauvelle-Aymar
  • Abel François

    ()

Abstract

Several methodological difficulties emerge from the empirical evaluation of the impact of closeness on turnout. The most critical resides in the use of the actual electoral results to assess the impact of closeness. Important doubt therefore remains with respect to the empirical validity of the relationship between turnout and closeness. This article intends to explore this ambiguity by an econometric analysis of the two-round French legislative elections. The first ballot gives excellent information to the voters on the expected closeness of the upcoming second ballot. The results show that closeness, whatever its measure, has an important and meaningful impact on electoral participation. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2006

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11127-005-9004-x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.

Volume (Year): 127 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 461-483

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Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:127:y:2006:i:3:p:461-483

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100332

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  1. Kirchgassner, Gebhard & Schimmelpfenning, Jorg, 1992. " Closeness Counts If It Matters for Electoral Victory: Some Empirical Results for the United Kingdom and the Federal Republic of Germany," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 73(3), pages 283-99, April.
  2. Gelman, Andrew & Katz, Jonathan N. & Bafumi, Joseph, 2002. "Standard Voting Power Indexes Don't Work: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 1133, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  3. Timothy J. Feddersen, 2004. "Rational Choice Theory and the Paradox of Not Voting," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 99-112, Winter.
  4. Matsusaka, John G & Palda, Filip, 1993. " The Downsian Voter Meets the Ecological Fallacy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 77(4), pages 855-78, December.
  5. Matsusaka, J.C., 1991. "Election Closeness and Voter Turnout: Evidence from California Ballot Propositions," Papers 91-29, Southern California - School of Business Administration.
  6. Barry Nalebuff & Ron Shachar, 1999. "Follow the Leader: Theory and Evidence on Political Participation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 525-547, June.
  7. Chapman, Randall G & Palda, Kristian S, 1983. " Electoral Turnout in Rational Voting and Consumption Perspectives," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(4), pages 337-46, March.
  8. Grofman, Bernard & Collet, Christian & Griffin, Robert, 1998. " Analyzing the Turnout-Competition Link with Aggregate Cross-Sectional Data," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 95(3-4), pages 233-46, June.
  9. Amrita Dhillon & Susana Peralta, 2002. "Economic Theories Of Voter Turnout," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(480), pages F332-F352, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Maria De Paola & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2012. "The Causal Impact Of Closeness On Electoral Participation Exploiting The Italian Dual Ballot System," Working Papers 201203, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza (Ex Dipartimento di Economia e Statistica).
  2. Cassette, Aurélie & Farvaque, Etienne & Héricourt, Jérôme, 2011. "Two-round elections, one-round determinants? Evidence from the French municipal elections," MPRA Paper 34675, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Caseette, Aurélie & Farvaque, Etienne, 2013. "Are Elections Debt Brakes? Evidence from French Municipalities," MPRA Paper 48808, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Fink, Alexander, 2012. "The effects of party campaign spending under proportional representation: Evidence from Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 574-592.
  5. De Benedetto, Marco Alberto & De Paola, Maria, 2013. "The Impact of Incumbency on Turnout: Evidence from Italian Municipalities," IZA Discussion Papers 7612, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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