Analyzing trade opening in Ukraine: effects of a customs union with the EU
AbstractThis paper analyzes the possible a customs union between and the European Union. The GTAP multi-country simulation model of Purdue University's Center for Global Trade Analysis is applied. The welfare measure evaluated is the change in equivalent variation (EV). As all incomes in the model accrue to a representative household, EV fully assesses possible welfare benefits for Ukraine from a bilateral tariff elimination on trade with the EU. As the model includes Ukraine in the aggregated âFormer Soviet Unionâ region (FSU), EV is estimated for the FSU and then disaggregated on the industry level proportionally to trade shares. The results of our simulations suggest that Ukraineâs EV is particularly sensitive to the inclusion of the agricultural sector into a customs union. Due to the highly protected nature of this sector within the EU, Ukraine would be better off if agriculture were excluded from liberalization. If this scenario is assumed, Ukraine's monetary gain would be in the order of $40 million. --
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Economic Change and Restructuring.
Volume (Year): 41 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=113294
Ukraine; Trade; Integration; GTAP; F02; F15; O19; O52;
Other versions of this item:
- Harbuzyuk, Oksana & Lutz, Stefan, 2004. "Analyzing trade opening in Ukraine: Effects of a customs union with the EU," ZEI Working Papers B 26-2004, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
- F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- O19 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
- O52 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
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