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Turkish EU Membership: A Simulation Study of Economic Effects

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Author Info

  • Pekka Sulamaa

    ()
    (Government Institutte for Economic Research)

  • Mika Widgrén

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Turku School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the economic effects of Turkish EU membership. The evaluation is based on a widely utilized computable general equilibrium model called GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project). Imperfect competition is modelled via assumption of scale economies on non agricultural sectors. The latest GTAP database version (base year 2001) is aggregated into seven regions: Turkey, Germany-Austria, North EU, South EU, Balkan countries, NAFTA, ASIA and Rest of World. We analyse economic effects of abolishing trade barriers between the EU25 and Turkey and applying common external tax on Turkey. Major sectoral effects are bound to originate from the agriculture which accounts 11.4 % of TurkeyÕs GDP.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Aboa Centre for Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 10.

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Length: 19
Date of creation: Oct 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp10

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Related research

Keywords: GTAP; Turkey; EU enlargement;

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References

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  1. Harrison, Glenn W. & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 1996. "Economic implications for Turkey of a customs union with the European Union," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1599, The World Bank.
  2. Francois, Joseph, 1998. "Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition in the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 317, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  3. Hanoch, Giora, 1975. "Production and Demand Models with Direct or Indirect Implicit Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 43(3), pages 395-419, May.
  4. Bernard M. Hoekman & Togan Sübidey, 2005. "Turkey : Economic Reform and Accession to the European Union," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7494, October.
  5. Howe, Howard & Pollak, Robert A & Wales, Terence J, 1979. "Theory and Time Series Estimation of the Quadratic Expenditure System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1231-47, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Dudu, Hasan & Cakmak, Erol H., 2013. "Trade Liberalization and Productivity Growth: A Recursive Dynamic CGE Analysis for Turkey," Proceedings Issues, 2013: Productivity and Its Impacts on Global Trade, June 2-4, 2013. Seville, Spain 152357, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
  2. Karaca, Orhan & Philippidis, George, 2008. "Turkey’S Accession To The European Union: Implications For Agricultural Sectors," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6398, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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