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Turkish EU Membership: A Simulation Study of Economic Effects

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Author Info
Pekka Sulamaa () (Government Institutte for Economic Research)
Mika Widgrén () (Department of Economics, Turku School of Economics)

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Abstract

This paper evaluates the economic effects of Turkish EU membership. The evaluation is based on a widely utilized computable general equilibrium model called GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project). Imperfect competition is modelled via assumption of scale economies on non agricultural sectors. The latest GTAP database version (base year 2001) is aggregated into seven regions: Turkey, Germany-Austria, North EU, South EU, Balkan countries, NAFTA, ASIA and Rest of World. We analyse economic effects of abolishing trade barriers between the EU25 and Turkey and applying common external tax on Turkey. Major sectoral effects are bound to originate from the agriculture which accounts 11.4 % of TurkeyÕs GDP.

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File URL: http://www.ace-economics.fi/kuvat/ACE10%20Sulamaa%20Widgren.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Aboa Centre for Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 10.

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Length: 19
Date of creation: Oct 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp10

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Related research
Keywords: GTAP; Turkey; EU enlargement;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Hanoch, Giora, 1975. "Production and Demand Models with Direct or Indirect Implicit Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 43(3), pages 395-419, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Francois, Joseph, 1998. "Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition in the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 317, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University. [Downloadable!]
  3. Harrison, Glenn W. & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 1997. "Economic implications for Turkey of a Customs Union with the European Union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 861-870, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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