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Exploring the Dynamics of Building Supply: A Duration Model of the Development Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Mark S. Coleman

    (BondSpace.com Inc. Arlington, MA)

  • Ralph Gentile

    (F.W.Dodge Lexington, MA)

Abstract

A noticeable omission in the existing body of applied real estate research is the lack of empirical analysis of the commercial development process. We address this shortcoming by utilizing a large panel database of individual building projects that in principle allows us to follow individual projects through various stages of their development life cycle. We begin by examining the basic distributional and time series characteristics of the development cycle, and then examine how these results vary by stage of construction, property sector and geography. We then estimate unconditional transition probabilities and finally, present preliminary results from a formal, nonparametric duration model.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark S. Coleman & Ralph Gentile, 2001. "Exploring the Dynamics of Building Supply: A Duration Model of the Development Cycle," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 21(1/2), pages 21-42.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:21:n:1/2:2001:p:21-42
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Jeffrey D. Fisher, 1992. "Integrating Research on Markets for Space and Capital†," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 161-180, June.
    3. C. Tsuriel Somerville, 1999. "The Industrial Organization of Housing Supply: Market Activity, Land Supply and the Size of Homebuilder Firms," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(4), pages 669-694, December.
    4. John Benjamin & G. Donald Jud & Daniel T. Winkler, 1998. "The Supply Adjustment Process in Retail Space Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 15(3), pages 297-308.
    5. William C. Wheaton & Raymond G. Torto, 1988. "Vacancy Rates and the Future of Office Rents," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 430-436, December.
    6. Rosen, Kenneth T & Smith, Lawrence B, 1983. "The Price-Adjustment Process for Rental Housing and the Natural Vacancy Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 779-786, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. William C. Wheaton & William Eric Simonton, 2007. "The Secular and Cyclic Behavior of "True" Construction Costs," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 29(1), pages 1-26.

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    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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