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Real Estate Rental Growth Rates at Different Points in the Physical Market Cycle

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Author Info
Glenn R. Mueller () (Johns Hopkins University and Legg Mason Wood Walker, Inc. Baltimore, MD 21203)
Abstract

Real estate markets go through both physical cycles (demand and supply) that affect rental growth rates and financial cycles (capital flows to real estate) that affect property Prices (Mueller, 1995). This study develops a rental growth rate hypothesis based on a market’s position in the physical (demand-supply) market cycle. Using data from fifty-four office and industrial markets in the United States over a thirty-year period, an aggregated national average rental growth rate was calculated for each point in the cycle. An ANOVA test for differences of means found that the national average rental growth rates at each point in the cycle were statistically different. The results show local demand and supply, which interact to affect occupancy, are major determinants in rental growth rates. This research should help investors move from using a single rental growth rate for multiple year forecasts, to using yearly cycle driven rental growth rate estimates in their discounted cash flow projections.

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File URL: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol18n01/v18p131.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

Volume (Year): 18 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 131-150
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:18:n:1:1999:p:131-150

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Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Grenadier, Steven R, 1995. "The Persistence of Real Estate Cycles," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 95-119, March.
  2. MacMinn, Richard D, 1980. "Search and Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(2), pages 308-27, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Stephen A. Pyhrr & Waldo L. Born & James R. Webb, 1990. "Development of a Dynamic Investment Strategy under Alternative Inflation Cycle Scenarios," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 5(2), pages 177-194. [Downloadable!]
  4. Fershtman, Chaim & Fishman, Arthur, 1992. "Price Cycles and Booms: Dynamic Search Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1221-33, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Carlson, John A & McAfee, R Preston, 1983. "Discrete Equilibrium Price Dispersion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 480-93, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Nitzan, Shmuel & Tzur, Joseph, 1991. "Costly diagnosis and price dispersion," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 245-251, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & Goggin, Jean, 2008. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2008," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20084, August. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Rose Lai & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2007. "Stickiness of Rental Rates and Developers’ Option Exercise Strategies," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 159-188, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. McCartney, John, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of Development Cycles in the Dublin Office Market 1976-2007," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2008(4-Winter), pages 68-92. [Downloadable!]
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