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Development of a Dynamic Investment Strategy under Alternative Inflation Cycle Scenarios

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    Abstract

    Inflation and inflation cycles have been a major underlying reason for the financial successes and failures of real estate investors in recent history. These cycles have complex impacts on cash flow variables and thus on real estate returns and investment values. This study presents a decision framework and operational model to project investment returns for alternative inflation cycle scenarios and demonstrates their application for developing a dynamic real estate investment strategy. Such a strategy provides for portfolio revisions during different stages of the inflation cycle and assumes that investors seek to maximize expected "real" rates of return and hence owner's wealth. A probabilistic discounted cash flow model is designed and used to inflation-adjust each cash flow variable affected. Mathematical relationships are developed for specifying unique cash flow variable linkages and sensitivities, with lead and lag periods consistent with empirical evidence of timing of inflation impacts. Finally strategic implications for acquisition and disposition policy are discussed.

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    File URL: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol05n02/v05p177.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

    Volume (Year): 5 (1990)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 177-194

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    Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:5:n:2:1990:p:177-194

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    Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/

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    Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Web: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/about/get.htm

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    1. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
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    Cited by:
    1. Glenn R. Mueller, 1999. "Real Estate Rental Growth Rates at Different Points in the Physical Market Cycle," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 131-150.
    2. Waldo L. Born & Stephen A. Pyhrr, 1994. "Real Estate Valuation: The Effect of Market and Property Cycles," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(4), pages 455-486.
    3. G. Donald Jud & John D. Benjamin & G. Stacy Sirmans, 1996. "What Do We Know about Apartments and Their Markets?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 11(3), pages 243-258.
    4. Stephen A. Pyhrr & Stephen E. Roulac & Waldo L. Born, 1999. "Real Estate Cycles and Their Strategic Implications for Investors and Portfolio Managers in the Global Economy," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 7-68.
    5. Yoon Dokko & Robert H. Edelstein & Allan J. Lacayo & Daniel C. Lee, 1999. "Real Estate Income and Value Cycles: A Model of Market Dynamics," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 69-96.

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