Changha Jin () (Department of Real Estate, J. Mack Robinson College of Business, Georgia State University, P.O. Box 4020, Atlanta, Georgia 30302-4020) Terry V. Grissom () (School of the Built Environment, The University of Ulster, Jordanstown Campus, Shore Road, Newtownabbey Co. Antrim. UK BT 37)
Abstract
This paper applies the Hodrck-Prescott (HP) filter to forecast short-term residential real estate prices under cyclical movements. We separate the trend component from the cyclical component. We show that each regional residential market reacts not only to previous price movements, but also that these regional markets react to previous shocks under Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling. Using the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we compare our forecast to index values from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Housing Futures and Options. Our study identifies possible systematic errors from the different price adjustments reflecting current market situations.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Contact details of provider: Postal: Asia Real Estate Society, 51 Monroe Street, Plaza E-6, Rockville, MD 20850, USA Email: Web page: http://www.asres.org/
Order Information: Postal: Asian Real Estate Society, 51 Monroe Street, Plaza E-6, Rockville, MD 20850, USA Email: Web: http://www.asres.org/
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (IRER Graduate Assistant/Webmaster).