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Inflation and the Skewness of the Distribution of Relative Price Changes - Empirical Evidence for Germany

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  • Jörg Döpke

    ()

  • Christian Pierdzioch

    ()
    (Institute of World Economics)

Abstract

The paper uses German annual data covering the period 1969-2000 to present evidence on the link between aggregate inflation and the skewness of the distribution of relative price changes. Our empirical results are mixed. Our regression-based analyses suggest that the skewness of the distribution of relative price changes may be an explanatory variable for the inflation rate. Our empirical evidence in favor of the hypothesis that the skewness measure may help to explain shifts in the Phillips curve is somewhat weaker. Moreover, a structural vector autoregression reveals that the skewness may help to explain the dynamics of real output. At the same time, however, demand shocks seem to explain a non-negligible proportion of the variation of the skewness.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics in its journal Journal of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 223 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 136-158

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Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:223:y:2003:i:2:p:136-158

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Keywords: Inflation; relative prices; distribution of relative prices changes;

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References

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  1. Ratfai, Attila, 2000. "Relative price skewness and inflation: a structural VAR framework," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0028, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  2. Wolfgang Franz, 2001. "Neues von der NAIRU?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 221(3), pages 256-284.
  3. Robert A. Amano & R. Tiff Macklem, 1997. "Menu Costs, Relative Prices, and Inflation: Evidence for Canada," Working Papers 97-14, Bank of Canada.
  4. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Fischer, Stanley, 1982. "Relative price variability and inflation in the United States and Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 171-196.
  6. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1999. "Inflation And The Distribution Of Price Changes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 188-196, May.
  7. Ball, Laurence & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1995. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 161-93, February.
  8. Holly, Sean, 1997. "Relative Price Dispersion and the Rate of Inflation: The Evidence from Japan," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 12, pages 206-226.
  9. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  10. Funke, Michael, 1997. "How important are demand and supply shocks in explaining German business cycles?: New evidence on an old debate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 11-37, January.
  11. Richard De Abreu Lourenco & David Gruen, 1995. "Price Stickiness and Inflation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9502, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  12. Fischer, Stanley, 1982. "Relative price variability and inflation in the United States and Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 171-196.
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Cited by:
  1. Carlos Usabiaga & María Ángeles Caraballo, 2004. "Inflation and Nominal Rigidities in Spanish Regions: The Ball and Mankiw Approach," ERSA conference papers ersa04p12, European Regional Science Association.
  2. María Ángeles Caraballo & Carlos Usabiaga, 2006. "The Relevance of Supply Shocks for Inflation: The Spanish Case," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2006/17, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
  3. Maria A. Caraballo & Carlos Usabiaga, 2006. "Inflation and Supply Shocks in Spain: A Regional Approach," ERSA conference papers ersa06p335, European Regional Science Association.
  4. Christopher Martin & A. Nazif Çatik & A. Özlem Onder, 2011. "Relative price variability and the Phillips Curve: evidence from Turkey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 546-561, November.
  5. Mª Ángeles Caraballo Pou & Carlos Dabús, 2005. "Nominal rigidities, relative prices and skewness," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2005/17, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
  6. Caraballo Pou, M. Angeles & Dabus, Carlos, 2008. "Nominal rigidities, skewness and inflation regimes," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 16-33, March.

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