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The Relevance of Supply Shocks for Inflation: The Spanish Case

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Author Info
María Ángeles Caraballo () (Universidad de Sevilla)
Carlos Usabiaga () (Universidad de Pablo de Olavide)

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Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of supply shocks on the Spanish inflation rate. The methodology applied is based on Ball and Mankiw (1995). These authors assume that a good proxy for supply shocks is the third moment of the distribution of price changes, and show that nominal rigidities imply a positive relation between inflation and skewness, that is magnified by the variance of the distribution. The main data used are the monthly consumer price indexes of each region, disaggregated in 57 categories, for the 1993-2005 period. We estimate the relation between mean inflation and the higher moments of the distribution, including several control variables. The analysis has been carried out in two ways: firstly, each region is analysed separately and, secondly, we have used panel data techniques in order to test the homogeneity across regions. Our results point out that Spanish regions show a common pattern with regard to the nominal rigidities detected, and that the Spanish economy is vulnerable to supply shocks.

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Paper provided by Centro de Estudios Andaluces in its series Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces with number E2006/17.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cea:doctra:e2006_17

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation; nominal rigidities; skewness; supply shocks; Spanish regions;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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  1. Dolado, Juan J. & Jimeno, Juan F., 1997. "The causes of Spanish unemployment: A structural VAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1281-1307, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Richard de Abreu Lourenco & David Gruen, 1995. "Price Stickiness and Inflation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9502, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  3. Robert A. Amano & R. Tiff Macklem, 1997. "Menu Costs, Relative Prices, and Inflation: Evidence for Canada," Working Papers 97-14, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  4. Luc Aucremanne & Guy Brys & Mia Hubert & Peter J. Rousseeuw & Anja Struyf, 2002. "Inflation, relative prices and nominal rigidities," Research series 200205-1, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Ball, Laurence & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1994. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 247-61, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Mª Ángeles Caraballo Pou & Carlos Dabús, 2005. "Nominal rigidities, relative prices and skewness," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2005/17, Centro de Estudios Andaluces. [Downloadable!]
  9. María Ángeles Caraballo & Carlos Usabiaga, 2003. "Análisis de la estructura de la inflación de las regiones españolas: La metodología de Ball y Mankiw," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2003/44, Centro de Estudios Andaluces. [Downloadable!]
  10. Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "The Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation: Evidence from the G7 Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 5404, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng., 1980. "Estimation of Dynamic Models with Error Components," Working Papers 336, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  12. Simon Hall & Anthony Yates, . "Are there downward nominal rigidities in product markets?," Bank of England working papers 80, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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