IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ipf/psejou/v44y2020i2p203-219.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Migration with pension reform expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Marek Gora

    (Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland; Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn, Germany)

  • Anna Ruzik-Sierdzinska

    (Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland)

Abstract

Pension reforms, which imply a reduction in the generosity of pension benefits, are becoming widespread in response to the demographic transition. The scale, the timing, and the pace of these reforms vary across countries. In this theoretical article, the authors analyse individual migration decisions, by adding a component linked to the expected old-age pension benefits in sending and receiving countries in two cases: when the pension system rules are known, and when there is a risk of pension systems reforms. The results indicate that when individuals fail to take future pension wealth into account, they can make sub-optimal migration decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Marek Gora & Anna Ruzik-Sierdzinska, 2020. "Migration with pension reform expectations," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 44(2), pages 203-219.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipf:psejou:v:44:y:2020:i:2:p:203-219
    DOI: 10.3326/pse.44.2.3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.pse-journal.hr/upload/files/pse/2020/2/3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3326/pse.44.2.3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Assaf Razin & Jackline Wahba, 2015. "Welfare Magnet Hypothesis, Fiscal Burden, and Immigration Skill Selectivity," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(2), pages 369-402, April.
    2. Xavier Chojnicki & Lionel Ragot, 2016. "Impacts of Immigration on an Ageing Welfare State: An Applied General Equilibrium Model for France," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 37, pages 258-284, June.
    3. Tito Boeri & Agar Brugiavini, 2008. "Pension Reforms and Women Retirement Plans," Working Papers 2008_35, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    4. Burda, Michael C, 1995. "Migration and the Option Value of Waiting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Xavier Chojnicki & Lionel Ragot, 2016. "Impacts of Immigration on an Ageing Welfare State: An Applied General Equilibrium Model for France," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 37, pages 258-284, June.
    6. Tsunao Okumura & Emiko Usui, 2014. "The effect of pension reform on pension-benefit expectations and savings decisions in Japan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(14), pages 1677-1691, May.
    7. De Giorgi, Giacomo & Pellizzari, Michele, 2009. "Welfare migration in Europe," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 353-363, August.
    8. Robert Holzmann & Mitchell Orenstein & Michal Rutkowski, 2003. "Pension Reform in Europe : Process and Progress," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15132, December.
    9. Kosta Josifidis & Novica Supic & Emilija Beker Pucar & Sladjana Srdic, 2014. "Labour migration flows: EU8+2 vs EU-15," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 41-55, February.
    10. Borjas, George J, 1999. "Immigration and Welfare Magnets," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(4), pages 607-637, October.
    11. George J. Borjas, 2021. "Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 4, pages 69-91, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Örn B. Bodvarsson & Hendrik Van den Berg, 2013. "The Economics of Immigration," Springer Books, Springer, edition 2, number 978-1-4614-2116-0, September.
    13. Assaf Razin & Jackline Wahba, 2015. "Welfare Magnet Hypothesis, Fiscal Burden, and Immigration Skill Selectivity," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(2), pages 369-402, April.
    14. Marek Góra, 2013. "Political economy of pension reforms: selected general issues and the Polish pension reform case," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-31, December.
    15. Hatton, Timothy J., 2014. "The economics of international migration: A short history of the debate," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 43-50.
    16. Kaczmarczyk, Pawel, 2015. "Burden or Relief? Fiscal Impacts of Recent Ukrainian Migration to Poland," IZA Discussion Papers 8779, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Shane Frederick & George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue, 2002. "Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 351-401, June.
    18. Dennis Fredriksen & Nils Martin Stølen, 2015. "Life time pension benefits relative to life time contributions," Discussion Papers 825, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    19. Jack DeWaard & James Raymer, 2012. "The temporal dynamics of international migration in Europe: Recent trends," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 26(21), pages 543-592.
    20. Dennis Fredriksen & Nils M Stølen, 2017. "Life Time Pension Benefits Relative to Life Time Contributions," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 10(2), pages 177-207.
    21. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2006. "Measuring Pension‐benefit Expectations Probabilistically," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 20(2), pages 201-236, June.
    22. McKinnish, Terra, 2007. "Welfare-induced migration at state borders: New evidence from micro-data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(3-4), pages 437-450, April.
    23. Miles, David & Iben, Andreas, 2000. "The Reform of Pension Systems: Winners and Losers across Generations in the United Kingdom and Germany," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(266), pages 203-228, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Corneo, Giacomo & Neidhöfer, Guido, 2021. "Income redistribution and self-selection of immigrants," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    2. Bettin, Giulia & Sacchi, Agnese, 2020. "Health spending in Italy: The impact of immigrants," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Pawel Kaczmarczyk, 2013. "Are immigrants a burden for the state budget? Review paper," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers p0356, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    4. Shenghua Xie & Juan Chen & Veli-Matti Ritakallio & Xiangming Leng, 2021. "Welfare migration or migrant selection? Social insurance participation and rural migrants’ intentions to seek permanent urban settlement in China," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(10), pages 1983-2003, August.
    5. Martin Kahanec & Martin Guzi, 2023. "Welfare Migration," Discussion Papers 65, Central European Labour Studies Institute (CELSI).
    6. Assaf Razin & Jackline Wahba, 2015. "Welfare Magnet Hypothesis, Fiscal Burden, and Immigration Skill Selectivity," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(2), pages 369-402, April.
    7. Jürgen Huber & Laura Hueber & Daniel Kleinlercher & Thomas Stöckl, 2022. "Acceptance or rejection of welfare migration—an experimental investigation," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(11), pages 1-28, November.
    8. Anthony Edo & Lionel Ragot & Hillel Rapoport & Sulin Sardoschau & Andreas Steinmayr & Arthur Sweetman, 2020. "An introduction to the economics of immigration in OECD countries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 1365-1403, November.
    9. Corrado Giulietti & Jackline Wahba, 2013. "Welfare migration," Chapters, in: Amelie F. Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Migration, chapter 26, pages 489-504, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Marcus H. Böhme & Sarah Kups, 2017. "The economic effects of labour immigration in developing countries: A literature review," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 335, OECD Publishing.
    11. Łukasz Byra, 2023. "Two possible reasons behind the reluctance of low-skilled workers to migrate to generous welfare states," Working Papers 2023-24, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    12. Di Iasio, Valentina & Wahba, Jackline, 2024. "The Determinants of Refugees’ Destinations: Where do refugees locate within the EU?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    13. Michael Christl & Alain Bélanger & Alessandra Conte & Jacopo Mazza & Edlira Narazani, 2022. "Projecting the fiscal impact of immigration in the European Union," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(4), pages 365-385, December.
    14. Vassil Kirov & Lucia Kováčová & Martin Guzi & Jan Czarzasty & Dragoș Adăscăliței & Martin Kahanec, 2023. "Preserving Jobs in COVID-19 Times in CEE Countries: Social Partners’ Responses and Actions," Discussion Papers 66, Central European Labour Studies Institute (CELSI).
    15. Andersen, Torben M. & Migali, Silvia, 2016. "Migrant Workers and the Welfare State," IZA Discussion Papers 9940, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Eduard Suari‐Andreu & Olaf van Vliet, 2023. "Intra‐EU migration, public transfers and assimilation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(360), pages 1229-1264, October.
    17. Zaiceva, A. & Zimmermann, K.F., 2016. "Migration and the Demographic Shift," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 119-177, Elsevier.
    18. Jakubiak Igor, 2017. "Migration and Welfare Systems – State of the Art and Research Challenges," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 1(48), pages 51-70, November.
    19. Bratu, Cristina & Dahlberg, Matz & Engdahl, Mattias & Nikolka, Till, 2020. "Spillover effects of stricter immigration policies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    20. Petra W. Jong & Kim Caarls & Helga A. G. Valk, 2022. "The Welfare State as Safety Net in Migration Preferences: Empirical Evidence from an Experiment Among Dutch Master Students," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(2), pages 671-694, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    migration decisions; pension benefits; pension reforms; institutional uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipf:psejou:v:44:y:2020:i:2:p:203-219. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martina Fabris (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ijfffhr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.