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Gravity, Bilateral Agreements, and Trade Diversion in the Americas

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Author Info
Raymond Robertson
Antoni Estevadeordal.
Abstract

Krishna (1998) shows that a bilateral agreement between two countries render a multilateral agreement less attractive if the bilateral agreement is trade diverting.

This paper combines Krishna’s model with the empirical approach of Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) to show that the estimated effect of tariffs in a multiple country (n>3) context over time measures trade diversion. We apply this measure to new asymmetric, time-varying Latin American trade and tariff data using Anderson and van Wincoop’s (2003) nonlinear estimation approach and OLS.

The results show an increase in trade diversion as sub-regional trade agreements proliferated and enthusiasm for the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas declined.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its journal Cuadernos de Economía.

Volume (Year): 46 (2009)
Issue (Month): 133 ()
Pages: 3-33
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Handle: RePEc:ioe:cuadec:v:46:y:2009:i:133:p:3-33

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Related research
Keywords: Gravity Models; Asymmetric Tariffs; Trade Diversion.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General
F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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  1. Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 2002. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 281-316, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Wilfred J. Ethier, 1998. "Regionalism in a Multilateral World," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1214-1245, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Andrew K. Rose, 2004. "Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 98-114, March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Gordon H. Hanson & Chong Xiang, 2004. "The Home-Market Effect and Bilateral Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1108-1129, September. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M Stern, 2001. "Multilateral, Regional, and Bilateral Trade-Policy Options for the United States and Japan," Working Papers 469, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1998. "The New Regionalism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1149-61, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Pravin Krishna, 1998. "Regionalism And Multilateralism: A Political Economy Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(1), pages 227-250, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Antoni Estevadeordal & Caroline Freund & Emanuel Ornelas, 2008. "Does Regionalism Affect Trade Liberalization Towards Non-Members?," CEP Discussion Papers dp0868, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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