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Russia's trade flows and WTO

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  • Sergey Kolesnikov

    ()
    (Department of Economics, European University at St. Petersburg)

  • Olga Podkorytova

Abstract

In our paper, we use the gravity model of the international trade to estimate the effect of the future WTO ascension for Russia based on the current WTO effect for Russia's WTO trade partners. Starting from Rose's specification, we constructed several progressively exact models. Nevertheless, none of these specifications shows any evidence that the WTO significantly and positively influences the trade between its members among Russia's trade partners. This result holds even as we exclude the oil and the gas trade and the FTA influence. Therefore, in terms of increasing the overall trade the value of ascension seems to be lower than FTAs, the impact of which is evident in the model.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics in its series EUSP Deparment of Economics Working Paper Series with number Ec-06/11.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 21 Jun 2011
Date of revision: 01 Jul 2011
Handle: RePEc:eus:wpaper:ec0611

Note: Presented at the XVI conference on Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade (DEGIT-XVI), St. Petersburg, September, 8th-9th, 2011
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Keywords: Russia; gravity model; trade flows; non-oil trade;

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  1. Alan V. Deardorff, 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Working Papers 5377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?," NBER Working Papers 9273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June.
  4. Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 1998. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," NBER Working Papers 6529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Baldwin, Richard & Taglioni, Daria, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5850, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Subramanian, Arvind & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2007. "The WTO promotes trade, strongly but unevenly," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 151-175, May.
  7. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
  8. Yaroslav Lissovolik & Bogdan Lissovolik, 2004. "Russia and the WTO," IMF Working Papers 04/159, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
  10. Babetskaia-Kukharchuk, Oxana & Maurel, Mathilde, 2004. "Russia's accession to the WTO: the potential for trade increase," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 680-699, December.
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