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El modelo gravitacional y el TLC entre Colombia y Estados Unidos

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  • Mauricio Cárdenas

    ()

  • Camilo García Jimeno

    ()

Abstract

El modelo de gravitacional es una conocida herramienta para predecir los flujos de comercio entre países. A partir de datos anuales de comercio entre 178 países para el período 1948-1999, este trabajo estima que un TLC entre Colombia y Estados Unidos incrementaría el comercio bilateral en 40%. Sin embargo, el comercio caería en 58% de no firmarse el tratado y perderse las preferencias arancelarias del ATPDEA. Otras estimaciones usan datos de importaciones de EEUU por sector económico y encuentran efectos mayores. Además, esta base de datos incluye una medición de los costos de transporte. La elasticidad de las importaciones con respecto a esta variable es de -0.5, lo que implica grandes ganancias de las mejoras en regulación e infraestructura. Abstract: The gravity model is a well-known tool in order to predict international trade patterns. Based on annual trade data for 178 countries between 1948 and 1999, the paper estimates that a FTA between Colombia and the U.S. would raise bilateral trade by 40%. However, trade would fall by 58% if no such agreement is signed, and the unilateral trade preferences granted under ATPDEA are lifted. Another set of estimations uses US imports by sector and finds a much larger effect. In addition, in this database transport costs can be measured. The estimated elasticity of imports with respect to these costs is -0.5, implying large gains from improvements in regulation and infrastructure.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by FEDESARROLLO in its series WORKING PAPERS SERIES. DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO with number 002527.

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Length: 38
Date of creation: 30 Oct 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000123:002527

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References

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  1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. repec:att:wimass:9713 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 2002. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 281-316, April.
  4. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-53, February.
  5. Rose, Andrew K, 2002. "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3538, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Robert C. Feenstra & James R. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 430-447, May.
  7. Andrew K. Rose, 1990. "Why has trade grown faster than income?," International Finance Discussion Papers 390, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Céline Carrère & Maurice Schiff, 2005. "On the Geography of Trade. Distance is Alive and Well," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(6), pages 1249-1274.
  9. Geraci, Vincent J & Prewo, Wilfried, 1977. "Bilateral Trade Flows and Transport Costs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 59(1), pages 67-74, February.
  10. Berthelon, Matias & Freund, Caroline, 2008. "On the conservation of distance in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 310-320, July.
  11. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2001. "The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-27, February.
  12. Finger, J M & Yeats, Alexander J, 1976. "Effective Protection by Transportation Costs and Tariffs: A Comparison of Magnitudes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 169-76, February.
  13. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
  14. Limao, Nuno & Venables, Anthony J., 1999. "Infrastructure, geographical disadvantage, and transport costs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2257, The World Bank.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Correia Leite João, 2008. "The Determinants of Colombian Exports: An Empirical Analysis Using the Gravity Model," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  2. Paolo Giordano & Norberto Ianelli & Christian Volpe Martincus & Luiz Arruda Villela, 2006. "Colombia: Nota sectorial sobre Comercio e Integración," IDB Publications 9250, Inter-American Development Bank.
  3. Camilo UMAÑA DAJUD, 2011. "Una evaluación de la estrategia comercial de Colombia a la luz de un Modelo de Equilibrio General Computable basado en la ecuación de gravedad," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 008948, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
  4. Barrientos Marín, Jorge & Lotero Contreras, Jorge, 2009. "Evolución y determinantes de las exportaciones industriales regionales: evidencia empírica para Colombia, 1977-2002," BORRADORES DEPARTAMENTO DE ECONOMÍA 008099, UNIVERSIDAD DE ANTIOQUIA - CIE.

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