Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

El modelo gravitacional y el TLC entre Colombia y Estados Unidos

Contents:

Author Info

  • Mauricio Cárdenas

    ()

  • Camilo García Jimeno

    ()

Abstract

El modelo de gravitacional es una conocida herramienta para predecir los flujos de comercio entre países. A partir de datos anuales de comercio entre 178 países para el período 1948-1999, este trabajo estima que un TLC entre Colombia y Estados Unidos incrementaría el comercio bilateral en 40%. Sin embargo, el comercio caería en 58% de no firmarse el tratado y perderse las preferencias arancelarias del ATPDEA. Otras estimaciones usan datos de importaciones de EEUU por sector económico y encuentran efectos mayores. Además, esta base de datos incluye una medición de los costos de transporte. La elasticidad de las importaciones con respecto a esta variable es de -0.5, lo que implica grandes ganancias de las mejoras en regulación e infraestructura. Abstract: The gravity model is a well-known tool in order to predict international trade patterns. Based on annual trade data for 178 countries between 1948 and 1999, the paper estimates that a FTA between Colombia and the U.S. would raise bilateral trade by 40%. However, trade would fall by 58% if no such agreement is signed, and the unilateral trade preferences granted under ATPDEA are lifted. Another set of estimations uses US imports by sector and finds a much larger effect. In addition, in this database transport costs can bemeasured. The estimated elasticity of imports with respect to thesecosts is -0.5, implying large gains from improvements in regulation andinfrastructure.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.fedesarrollo.org.co/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/WP-No.-27-El-modelo-gravitacional-y-el-TLC.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by FEDESARROLLO in its series WORKING PAPERS SERIES. DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO with number 002527.

as in new window
Length: 38
Date of creation: 30 Oct 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000123:002527

Contact details of provider:

Related research

Keywords: Modelo Gravitacional; Comercio Internacional; Costos de Transporte; Acuerdos de Libre Comercio; Sistemas de Preferencias; TLC;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Céline Carrère & Maurice Schiff, 2005. "On the Geography of Trade. Distance is Alive and Well," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(6), pages 1249-1274.
  2. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
  3. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics.
  4. Andrew K. Rose, 1991. "Why Has Trade Grown Faster than Income?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 24(2), pages 417-27, May.
  5. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2001. "The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-27, February.
  6. Rose, Andrew K, 2002. "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3538, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 1996. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," International Trade 9608001, EconWPA, revised 13 Jun 1997.
  8. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-53, February.
  9. Berthelon, Matias & Freund, Caroline, 2008. "On the conservation of distance in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 310-320, July.
  10. Robert C. Feenstra & James R. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 430-447, May.
  11. Limao, Nuno & Venables, Anthony J., 1999. "Infrastructure, geographical disadvantage, and transport costs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2257, The World Bank.
  12. Geraci, Vincent J & Prewo, Wilfried, 1977. "Bilateral Trade Flows and Transport Costs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 59(1), pages 67-74, February.
  13. Finger, J M & Yeats, Alexander J, 1976. "Effective Protection by Transportation Costs and Tariffs: A Comparison of Magnitudes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 169-76, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Camilo UMAÑA DAJUD, 2011. "Una evaluación de la estrategia comercial de Colombia a la luz de un Modelo de Equilibrio General Computable basado en la ecuación de gravedad," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 008948, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
  2. Paolo Giordano & Norberto Ianelli & Christian Volpe Martincus & Luiz Arruda Villela, 2006. "Colombia: Nota sectorial sobre Comercio e Integración," IDB Publications 9250, Inter-American Development Bank.
  3. Correia Leite João, 2008. "The Determinants of Colombian Exports: An Empirical Analysis Using the Gravity Model," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  4. Barrientos Marín, Jorge & Lotero Contreras, Jorge, 2009. "Evolución y determinantes de las exportaciones industriales regionales: evidencia empírica para Colombia, 1977-2002," BORRADORES DEPARTAMENTO DE ECONOMÍA 008099, UNIVERSIDAD DE ANTIOQUIA - CIE.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000123:002527. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lucía Fenney Pérez).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.