El modelo de gravitacional es una conocida herramienta para predecir los flujos de comercio entre países. A partir de datos anuales de comercio entre 178 países para el período 1948-1999, este trabajo estima que un TLC entre Colombia y Estados Unidos incrementaría el comercio bilateral en 40%. Sin embargo, el comercio caería en 58% de no firmarse el tratado y perderse las preferencias arancelarias del ATPDEA. Otras estimaciones usan datos de importaciones de EEUU por sector económico y encuentran efectos mayores. Además, esta base de datos incluye una medición de los costos de transporte. La elasticidad de las importaciones con respecto a esta variable es de -0.5, lo que implica grandes ganancias de las mejoras en regulación e infraestructura. Abstract The gravity model is a well-known tool in order to predict international trade patterns. Based on annual trade data for 178 countries between 1948 and 1999, the paper estimates that a FTA between Colombia and the U.S. would raise bilateral trade by 40%. However, trade would fall by 58% if no such agreement is signed, and the unilateral trade preferences granted under ATPDEA are lifted. Another set of estimations uses US imports by sector and finds a much larger effect. In addition, in this database transport costs can be measured. The estimated elasticity of imports with respect to these costs is -0.5, implying large gains from improvements in regulation and infrastructure.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Length: 38 Date of creation: 30 Oct 2004 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:col:000123:002527
Contact details of provider:
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Lucía Fenney Pérez).
Related research
Keywords:
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: