IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/oropre/v62y2014i3p580-601.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling Passenger Travel and Delays in the National Air Transportation System

Author

Listed:
  • Cynthia Barnhart

    (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139)

  • Douglas Fearing

    (Department of Information, Risk, and Operations Management, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas 78712)

  • Vikrant Vaze

    (Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire 03755)

Abstract

Many of the existing methods for evaluating an airline's on-time performance are based on flight-centric measures of delay. However, recent research has demonstrated that passenger delays depend on many factors in addition to flight delays. For instance, significant passenger delays result from flight cancellations and missed connections, which themselves depend on a significant number of factors. Unfortunately, lack of publicly available passenger travel data has made it difficult for researchers to explore the nature of these relationships. In this paper, we develop methodologies to model historical travel and delays for U.S. domestic passengers. We develop a multinomial logit model for estimating historical passenger travel and extend a previously developed greedy reaccommodation heuristic for estimating the resulting passenger delays. We report and analyze the estimated passenger delays for calendar year 2007, developing insights into factors that affect the performance of the National Air Transportation System in the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Cynthia Barnhart & Douglas Fearing & Vikrant Vaze, 2014. "Modeling Passenger Travel and Delays in the National Air Transportation System," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 62(3), pages 580-601, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:62:y:2014:i:3:p:580-601
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.2014.1268
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.2014.1268
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/opre.2014.1268?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Coldren, Gregory M. & Koppelman, Frank S. & Kasturirangan, Krishnan & Mukherjee, Amit, 2003. "Modeling aggregate air-travel itinerary shares: logit model development at a major US airline," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(6), pages 361-369.
    2. Coldren, Gregory M. & Koppelman, Frank S., 2005. "Modeling the competition among air-travel itinerary shares: GEV model development," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 345-365, May.
    3. Frejinger, E. & Bierlaire, M. & Ben-Akiva, M., 2009. "Sampling of alternatives for route choice modeling," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 43(10), pages 984-994, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pagoni, Ioanna & Psaraki-Kalouptsidi, Voula, 2016. "The impact of carbon emission fees on passenger demand and air fares: A game theoretic approach," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 41-51.
    2. Ding, Yida & Wandelt, Sebastian & Wu, Guohua & Xu, Yifan & Sun, Xiaoqian, 2023. "Towards efficient airline disruption recovery with reinforcement learning," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    3. Antony Evans & Vikrant Vaze & Cynthia Barnhart, 2016. "Airline-Driven Performance-Based Air Traffic Management: Game Theoretic Models and Multicriteria Evaluation," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(1), pages 180-203, February.
    4. Gillen, David & Jacquillat, Alexandre & Odoni, Amedeo R., 2016. "Airport demand management: The operations research and economics perspectives and potential synergies," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 495-513.
    5. Alexandre Jacquillat & Amedeo R. Odoni, 2015. "An Integrated Scheduling and Operations Approach to Airport Congestion Mitigation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(6), pages 1390-1410, December.
    6. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    7. Jacquillat, Alexandre & Odoni, Amedeo R., 2018. "A roadmap toward airport demand and capacity management," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 114(PA), pages 168-185.
    8. Nikolas Pyrgiotis & Amedeo Odoni, 2016. "On the Impact of Scheduling Limits: A Case Study at Newark Liberty International Airport," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(1), pages 150-165, February.
    9. Li, Max Z. & Ryerson, Megan S., 2019. "Reviewing the DATAS of aviation research data: Diversity, availability, tractability, applicability, and sources," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 111-130.
    10. Zhu, Yiwen & Koutsopoulos, Haris N. & Wilson, Nigel H.M., 2017. "A probabilistic Passenger-to-Train Assignment Model based on automated data," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 522-542.
    11. Sismanidou, Athina & Tarradellas, Joan & Suau-Sanchez, Pere, 2022. "The uneven geography of US air traffic delays: Quantifying the impact of connecting passengers on delay propagation," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    12. Keji Wei & Vikrant Vaze, 2020. "Airline Timetable Development and Fleet Assignment Incorporating Passenger Choice," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(1), pages 139-163, January.
    13. Alexandre Jacquillat & Vikrant Vaze, 2018. "Interairline Equity in Airport Scheduling Interventions," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 941-964, August.
    14. Yan, Chiwei & Vaze, Vikrant & Vanderboll, Allison & Barnhart, Cynthia, 2016. "Tarmac delay policies: A passenger-centric analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 42-62.
    15. Gunter, Ulrich & Zekan, Bozana, 2021. "Forecasting air passenger numbers with a GVAR model," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    16. Xu, Yifan & Wandelt, Sebastian & Sun, Xiaoqian, 2021. "Airline integrated robust scheduling with a variable neighborhood search based heuristic," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 181-203.
    17. Uğur Arıkan & Sinan Gürel & M. Selim Aktürk, 2017. "Flight Network-Based Approach for Integrated Airline Recovery with Cruise Speed Control," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(4), pages 1259-1287, November.
    18. Serhan, Duaa & Lee, Hanbong & Yoon, Sang Won, 2018. "Minimizing airline and passenger delay cost in airport surface and terminal airspace operations," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 120-133.
    19. David Antunes & Vikrant Vaze & António Pais Antunes, 2019. "A Robust Pairing Model for Airline Crew Scheduling," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(6), pages 1751-1771, November.
    20. Hong, Liu & Zhong, Xin & Ouyang, Min & Tian, Hui & He, Xiaozheng, 2019. "Vulnerability analysis of public transit systems from the perspective of urban residential communities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 143-156.
    21. Christos Nicolaides & Demetris Avraam & Luis Cueto‐Felgueroso & Marta C. González & Ruben Juanes, 2020. "Hand‐Hygiene Mitigation Strategies Against Global Disease Spreading through the Air Transportation Network," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(4), pages 723-740, April.
    22. Keji Wei & Vikrant Vaze, 2018. "Modeling Crew Itineraries and Delays in the National Air Transportation System," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(5), pages 1276-1296, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. João P. Pita & Cynthia Barnhart & António P. Antunes, 2013. "Integrated Flight Scheduling and Fleet Assignment Under Airport Congestion," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(4), pages 477-492, November.
    2. Lurkin, Virginie & Garrow, Laurie A. & Higgins, Matthew J. & Newman, Jeffrey P. & Schyns, Michael, 2017. "Accounting for price endogeneity in airline itinerary choice models: An application to Continental U.S. markets," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 228-246.
    3. Cho, Woohyun & Windle, Robert J. & Dresner, Martin E., 2017. "The impact of operational exposure and value-of-time on customer choice: Evidence from the airline industry," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 455-471.
    4. Redondi, Renato & Birolini, Sebastian & Morlotti, Chiara & Paleari, Stefano, 2021. "Connectivity measures and passengers’ behavior: Comparing conventional connectivity models to predict itinerary market shares," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    5. Gustavo Vulcano & Garrett van Ryzin & Wassim Chaar, 2010. "OM Practice--Choice-Based Revenue Management: An Empirical Study of Estimation and Optimization," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 12(3), pages 371-392, February.
    6. Lurkin, Virginie & Garrow, Laurie A. & Higgins, Matthew J. & Newman, Jeffrey P. & Schyns, Michael, 2018. "Modeling competition among airline itineraries," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 157-172.
    7. Judit Guimera Busquets & Eduardo Alonso & Antony D. Evans, 2018. "Air itinerary shares estimation using multinomial logit models," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 3-16, January.
    8. Morlotti, Chiara & Birolini, Sebastian & Malighetti, Paolo & Redondi, Renato, 2023. "A latent class approach to estimate air travelers’ propensity toward connecting itineraries," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    9. Ahmed Abdelghany & Khaled Abdelghany & Ching-Wen Huang, 2021. "An integrated reinforced learning and network competition analysis for calibrating airline itinerary choice models with constrained demand," Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(3), pages 227-247, June.
    10. Hsiao, Chieh-Yu & Hansen, Mark, 2011. "A passenger demand model for air transportation in a hub-and-spoke network," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1112-1125.
    11. Freund-Feinstei, Uzi & Bekhor, Shlomo, 2017. "Airline Itinerary Choice In A Dynamic Supply Environment: Results From A Stated Preference Survey," Journal of Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, Cinturs - Research Centre for Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, University of Algarve, vol. 5(4), pages 400-424.
    12. Lhéritier, Alix & Bocamazo, Michael & Delahaye, Thierry & Acuna-Agost, Rodrigo, 2019. "Airline itinerary choice modeling using machine learning," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 198-209.
    13. Birolini, Sebastian & Cattaneo, Mattia & Malighetti, Paolo & Morlotti, Chiara, 2020. "Integrated origin-based demand modeling for air transportation," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    14. Thierry Delahaye & Rodrigo Acuna-Agost & Nicolas Bondoux & Anh-Quan Nguyen & Mourad Boudia, 2017. "Data-driven models for itinerary preferences of air travelers and application for dynamic pricing optimization," Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 16(6), pages 621-639, December.
    15. Seredyński, Adam & Rothlauf, Franz & Grosche, Tobias, 2014. "An airline connection builder using maximum connection lag with greedy parameter selection," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 120-128.
    16. Saffarzadeh, Mahmoud & Mazaheri, Akram & Tari, Majid Zabihi & Seyedabrishami, Seyedehsan, 2016. "Analysis of Iranian passengers' behavior in choosing type of carrier in international air travel to East Asia," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(PB), pages 123-130.
    17. Suau-Sanchez, Pere & Voltes-Dorta, Augusto & Rodríguez-Déniz, Héctor, 2016. "Measuring the potential for self-connectivity in global air transport markets: Implications for airports and airlines," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 70-82.
    18. Tao Li, 2017. "A Demand Estimator Based on a Nested Logit Model," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(3), pages 918-930, August.
    19. Koppelman, Frank S. & Coldren, Gregory M. & Parker, Roger A., 2008. "Schedule delay impacts on air-travel itinerary demand," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 263-273, March.
    20. Abdelghany, Ahmed & Guzhva, Vitaly S., 2022. "Exploratory analysis of air travel demand stimulation in first-time served markets," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:62:y:2014:i:3:p:580-601. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.