IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v62y2016i6p1598-1609.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Skewness and the Relation Between Risk and Return

Author

Listed:
  • Panayiotis Theodossiou

    (Department of Commerce, Finance and Shipping, Cyprus University of Technology, Limassol 3603, Cyprus, p.theodossiou@cut.ac.cy)

  • Christos S. Savva

    (Department of Commerce, Finance and Shipping, Cyprus University of Technology, Limassol 3603, Cyprus)

Abstract

The relationship between risk and return has been one of the most important and extensively investigated issues in the financial economics literature. The theoretical results predict a positive relation between the two. Nevertheless, the empirical findings so far have been contradictory. Evidence presented in this paper shows that these contradictions are the result of negative skewness in the distribution of portfolio excess return and the fact that the estimation of intertemporal asset pricing models are based on symmetric log-likelihood specifications.Data, as supplemental material, are available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2015.2201 . This paper was accepted by Jerome Detemple, finance .

Suggested Citation

  • Panayiotis Theodossiou & Christos S. Savva, 2016. "Skewness and the Relation Between Risk and Return," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(6), pages 1598-1609, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:62:y:2016:i:6:p:1598-1609
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2015.2201
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2015.2201
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.2015.2201?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campbell, John Y. & Hentschel, Ludger, 1992. "No news is good news *1: An asymmetric model of changing volatility in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 281-318, June.
    2. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    3. Panayiotis Theodossiou, 1998. "Financial Data and the Skewed Generalized T Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(12-Part-1), pages 1650-1661, December.
    4. Turan G. Bali & Panayiotis Theodossiou, 2008. "Risk Measurement Performance of Alternative Distribution Functions," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 75(2), pages 411-437, June.
    5. Ľuboš Pástor & Meenakshi Sinha & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2008. "Estimating the Intertemporal Risk–Return Tradeoff Using the Implied Cost of Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2859-2897, December.
    6. Paul Harrison & Harold H. Zhang, 1999. "An Investigation Of The Risk And Return Relation At Long Horizons," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 399-408, August.
    7. Baillie, Richard T. & DeGennaro, Ramon P., 1990. "Stock Returns and Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 203-214, June.
    8. John T. Scruggs, 1998. "Resolving the Puzzling Intertemporal Relation between the Market Risk Premium and Conditional Market Variance: A Two-Factor Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 575-603, April.
    9. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
    10. Ludvigson, Sydney C. & Ng, Serena, 2007. "The empirical risk-return relation: A factor analysis approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 171-222, January.
    11. Panayiotis Theodossiou, 2015. "Skewed Generalized Error Distribution of Financial Assets and Option Pricing," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 19(4), pages 223-266, December.
    12. Lin Peng & Turan G. Bali, 2006. "Is there a risk-return trade-off? Evidence from high-frequency data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1169-1198.
    13. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2009. "Multi-period portfolio choice and the intertemporal hedging demands for stocks and bonds: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 427-453, April.
    14. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    15. Enrique Sentana, 1995. "Quadratic ARCH Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 62(4), pages 639-661.
    16. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    17. Bansal, Ravi & Lundblad, Christian, 2002. "Market efficiency, asset returns, and the size of the risk premium in global equity markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 195-237, August.
    18. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    19. Chan, K. C. & Karolyi, G. Andrew & Stulz, ReneM., 1992. "Global financial markets and the risk premium on U.S. equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 137-167, October.
    20. Hansen, Bruce E, 1994. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 705-730, August.
    21. James Hansen & James McDonald & Panayiotis Theodossiou & Brad Larsen, 2010. "Partially Adaptive Econometric Methods For Regression and Classification," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 36(2), pages 153-169, August.
    22. Markku Lanne & Saikkonen Pentti, 2007. "Modeling Conditional Skewness in Stock Returns," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 691-704.
    23. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    24. Lundblad, Christian, 2007. "The risk return tradeoff in the long run: 1836-2003," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 123-150, July.
    25. McDonald, James B. & Newey, Whitney K., 1988. "Partially Adaptive Estimation of Regression Models via the Generalized T Distribution," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(3), pages 428-457, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Karagiorgis, Ariston & Drakos, Konstantinos, 2022. "The Skewness-Kurtosis plane for non-Gaussian systems: The case of hedge fund returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Delis, Manthos & Savva, Christos & Theodossiou, Panayiotis, 2020. "A Coronavirus Asset Pricing Model: The Role of Skewness," MPRA Paper 100877, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Juzhi Zhang & Suresh P. Sethi & Tsan‐Ming Choi & T. C. E. Cheng, 2020. "Supply Chains Involving a Mean‐Variance‐Skewness‐Kurtosis Newsvendor: Analysis and Coordination," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(6), pages 1397-1430, June.
    4. Delis, Manthos D. & Savva, Christos S. & Theodossiou, Panayiotis, 2021. "The impact of the coronavirus crisis on the market price of risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    5. Ioannidis, Filippos & Kosmidou, Kyriaki & Savva, Christos & Theodossiou, Panayiotis, 2021. "Electricity pricing using a periodic GARCH model with conditional skewness and kurtosis components," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    6. Mazur Błażej & Pipień Mateusz, 2018. "Time-varying asymmetry and tail thickness in long series of daily financial returns," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(5), pages 1-21, December.
    7. Papantonis Ioannis & Tzavalis Elias & Agapitos Orestis & Rompolis Leonidas S., 2023. "Augmenting the Realized-GARCH: the role of signed-jumps, attenuation-biases and long-memory effects," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 27(2), pages 171-198, April.
    8. Papantonis, Ioannis & Rompolis, Leonidas & Tzavalis, Elias, 2023. "Improving variance forecasts: The role of Realized Variance features," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1221-1237.
    9. Wang, Zijun & Khan, M. Moosa, 2017. "Market states and the risk-return tradeoff," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 314-327.
    10. Eero J. Pätäri & Timo H. Leivo & Janne Hulkkonen & J. V. Samuli Honkapuro, 2018. "Enhancement of value investing strategies based on financial statement variables: the German evidence," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 813-845, October.
    11. Zahrate El Oula Frihi & Julian Barreiro-Gomez & Salah Eddine Choutri & Hamidou Tembine, 2020. "Hierarchical Structures and Leadership Design in Mean-Field-Type Games with Polynomial Cost," Games, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-26, August.
    12. Panayiotis Theodossiou & Polina Ellina & Christos S. Savva, 2022. "Stochastic properties and pricing of bitcoin using a GJR-GARCH model with conditional skewness and kurtosis components," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 695-716, August.
    13. Delis, Manthos & Iosifidi, Maria & Tsionas, Mike G, 2017. "Endogenous bank risk and efficiency," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 260(1), pages 376-387.
    14. Andrew Harvey & Rutger‐Jan Lange, 2018. "Modeling the Interactions between Volatility and Returns using EGARCH‐M," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 909-919, November.
    15. Panayiotis Theodossiou, 2015. "Skewed Generalized Error Distribution of Financial Assets and Option Pricing," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 19(4), pages 223-266, December.
    16. Panayiotis Theodossiou & Dimitris Tsouknidis & Christos Savva, 2020. "Freight rates in downside and upside markets: pricing of own and spillover risks from other shipping segments," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(3), pages 1097-1119, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Turan Bali & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "The Intertemporal Relation between Expected Return and Risk on Currency," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 0909, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum, revised Nov 2009.
    2. Bali, Turan G., 2008. "The intertemporal relation between expected returns and risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 101-131, January.
    3. Lundblad, Christian, 2007. "The risk return tradeoff in the long run: 1836-2003," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 123-150, July.
    4. Salvador, Enrique & Floros, Christos & Arago, Vicent, 2014. "Re-examining the risk–return relationship in Europe: Linear or non-linear trade-off?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 60-77.
    5. Wang, Wenzhao, 2018. "Investor sentiment and the mean-variance relationship: European evidence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 227-239.
    6. Thomas C. Chiang & Jiandong Li, 2012. "Stock Returns and Risk: Evidence from Quantile," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-39, December.
    7. Delis, Manthos D. & Savva, Christos S. & Theodossiou, Panayiotis, 2021. "The impact of the coronavirus crisis on the market price of risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    8. Dimitrios Koutmos, 2015. "Is there a Positive Risk†Return Tradeoff? A Forward†Looking Approach to Measuring the Equity Premium," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 21(5), pages 974-1013, November.
    9. Jiang, Xiaoquan & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2014. "The intertemporal risk-return relation: A bivariate model approach," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 158-181.
    10. Yufeng Han, 2011. "On the relation between the market risk premium and market volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(22), pages 1711-1723.
    11. Cathy Yi†Hsuan Chen & Thomas C. Chiang, 2016. "Empirical Analysis of the Intertemporal Relationship between Downside Risk and Expected Returns: Evidence from Time†varying Transition Probability Models," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(5), pages 749-796, November.
    12. Chiang, Thomas C. & Li, Huimin & Zheng, Dazhi, 2015. "The intertemporal risk-return relationship: Evidence from international markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 156-180.
    13. Ghysels, Eric & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2005. "There is a risk-return trade-off after all," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 509-548, June.
    14. Turan G. Bali & Lin Peng, 2006. "Is there a risk–return trade‐off? Evidence from high‐frequency data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1169-1198, December.
    15. Neaime, Simon, 2012. "The global financial crisis, financial linkages and correlations in returns and volatilities in emerging MENA stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 268-282.
    16. Wang, Wenzhao & Duxbury, Darren, 2021. "Institutional investor sentiment and the mean-variance relationship: Global evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 415-441.
    17. Juan Carlos Escanciano & Juan Carlos Pardo-Fernández & Ingrid Van Keilegom, 2017. "Semiparametric Estimation of Risk–Return Relationships," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 40-52, January.
    18. Hong, Seok Young & Linton, Oliver, 2020. "Nonparametric estimation of infinite order regression and its application to the risk-return tradeoff," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 389-424.
    19. Müller, Gernot & Durand, Robert B. & Maller, Ross A., 2011. "The risk-return tradeoff: A COGARCH analysis of Merton's hypothesis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 306-320, March.
    20. Bali, Turan G. & Wu, Liuren, 2010. "The role of exchange rates in intertemporal risk-return relations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1670-1686, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:62:y:2016:i:6:p:1598-1609. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.