IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijm/journl/v8y2015i2p28-60.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling the Early life-course (MELC): A Microsimulation Model of Child Development in New Zealand

Author

Listed:
  • Barry J. Milne

    (Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences, The University of Auckland)

  • Roy Lay-Yee

    (Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences, The University of Auckland)

  • Jessica M. Mc Lay

    (Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences, The University of Auckland)

  • Janet Pearson

    (Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Auckland University of Technology,)

  • Martin von Randow

    (Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences, The University of Auckland)

  • Peter Davis

    (Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences, The University of Auckland)

Abstract

To understand the factors upon which policies can be devised to improve the lives of children and young people, we have developed a dynamic discrete-time micro-simulation model called Modelling the early life-course (MELC). MELC models child development from birth through to age 13, encompassing changes in material and family circumstances, family functioning and early education. MELC focusses on three main outcomes: health service use, early literacy, and conduct problems. A synthetic base population (n=10,000) derived from the 2006 New Zealand Census is used, and transitions through the life-course are determined from estimates derived by analysing three New Zealand child cohort studies: the Christchurch Health and Development Study, the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study, and the Pacific Islands Families Study. The model has been validated against New Zealand norms for reading, general practitioner visits and hospital admissions. Three scenarios were demonstrated. First, we tested the impact of a number of putatively important factors on early literacy, and found small effects. Second, we found that halving the prevalence of single parenting reduced the prevalence of conduct problems. Third, we changed a number of material and family factors for M?ori, Pacific and low-socio-economic groups to be equal to those for the general population, and found that this produced small improvements in reading, but large reductions in conduct problems for these groups. MELC has been deployed as a user friendly desktop application at a number of New Zealand government agencies, where it can be used to test policy-relevant scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Barry J. Milne & Roy Lay-Yee & Jessica M. Mc Lay & Janet Pearson & Martin von Randow & Peter Davis, 2015. "Modelling the Early life-course (MELC): A Microsimulation Model of Child Development in New Zealand," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 8(2), pages 28-60.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijm:journl:v:8:y:2015:i:2:p:28-60
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.microsimulation.org/IJM/V8_2/3_Milne_Lay-Yee_McLay_Pearson_vRandow_Davis.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Victoria, Cesar G. & Huttly, Sharon R. A. & Barros, Fernando C. & Lombardi, Cintia & Vaughan, J. Patrick, 1992. "Maternal education in relation to early and late child health outcomes: Findings from a Brazilian cohort study," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 899-905, April.
    2. Pinka Chatterji & Dohyung Kim & Kajal Lahiri, 2014. "Birth Weight And Academic Achievement In Childhood," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(9), pages 1013-1035, September.
    3. Jessica M. Mc Lay & Roy Lay-Yee & Barry J. Milne & Peter Davis, 2015. "Regression-Style Models for Parameter Estimation in Dynamic Microsimulation: An Empirical Performance Assessment," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 8(2), pages 83-127.
    4. McCrory, Cathal & Layte, Richard, 2011. "The effect of breastfeeding on children's educational test scores at nine years of age: Results of an Irish cohort study," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 72(9), pages 1515-1521, May.
    5. Donald R. Haurin & Toby L. Parcel & R. Jean Haurin, 2002. "Does Homeownership Affect Child Outcomes?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 635-666.
    6. Lay-Yee, Roy & Milne, Barry & Davis, Peter & Pearson, Janet & McLay, Jessica, 2015. "Determinants and disparities: A simulation approach to the case of child health care," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 202-211.
    7. Jinjing Li & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2014. "Evaluating Binary Alignment Methods in Microsimulation Models," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 17(1), pages 1-15.
    8. Shaw, Mary & Lawlor, Debbie A. & Najman, Jake M., 2006. "Teenage children of teenage mothers: Psychological, behavioural and health outcomes from an Australian prospective longitudinal study," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 62(10), pages 2526-2539, May.
    9. Jens Ludwig & Deborah A. Phillips, 2007. "The Benefits and Costs of Head Start," NBER Working Papers 12973, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Susan M. Rogers & James Rineer & Matthew D. Scruggs & William D. Wheaton & Phillip C. Cooley & Douglas J. Roberts & Diane K. Wagener, 2014. "A Geospatial Dynamic Microsimulation Model for Household Population Projections," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 7(2), pages 119-146.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mohana Mondal & Michael P. Cameron & Jacques Poot, 2021. "Towards a dynamic spatial microsimulation model for projecting Auckland's spatial distribution of ethnic groups," Working Papers in Economics 21/12, University of Waikato.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cathal O'Donoghue & Gijs Dekkers, 2018. "Increasing the Impact of Dynamic Microsimulation Modelling," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(1), pages 61-96.
    2. Johannes Geyer & Salmai Qari & Hermann Buslei & Peter Haan, 2021. "DySiMo Dokumentation: Version 1.0," Data Documentation 101, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Mohana Mondal & Michael P. Cameron & Jacques Poot, 2021. "Towards a dynamic spatial microsimulation model for projecting Auckland's spatial distribution of ethnic groups," Working Papers in Economics 21/12, University of Waikato.
    4. Miki Kobayashi & Emiko Usui, 2017. "Breastfeeding practices and parental employment in Japan," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 579-596, June.
    5. Wang, Jia & Winters, John V. & Yuan, Weici, 2022. "Can legal status help unauthorized immigrants achieve the American dream? Evidence from the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    6. Anna Aizer & Paul J. Devereux & Kjell G. Salvanes, 2019. "Grandparents, Mothers, or Fathers? Why Children of Teen Mothers do Worse in Life," Working Papers 201908, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    7. Chloe Gibbs & Jens Ludwig & Douglas L. Miller, 2011. "Does Head Start Do Any Lasting Good?," NBER Working Papers 17452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Tan, Teck Hong, 2008. "Determinants of homeownership in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 34950, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Marcel Fischer & Natalia Khorunzhina, 2019. "Housing Decision With Divorce Risk," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1263-1290, August.
    10. Yuxi Yao, 2023. "Accounting for the decline in homeownership among the young," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(1), pages 79-102, January.
    11. Cooper, Daniel & Luengo-Prado, María José, 2015. "House price growth when children are teenagers: A path to higher earnings?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 54-72.
    12. Basu, Shubhashrita & Gorry, Devon, 2021. "Consequences of teenage childbearing on child health," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    13. Vaske, Jamie C. & Newsome, Jamie & Boisvert, Danielle L. & Piquero, Alex R. & Paradis, Angela D. & Buka, Stephen L., 2015. "The impact of low birth weight and maternal age on adulthood offending," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 49-56.
    14. Roland G. Fryer, Jr, 2010. "Financial Incentives and Student Achievement: Evidence from Randomized Trials," NBER Working Papers 15898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. O'Donoghue, Cathal & Sologon, Denisa Maria, 2023. "The Transformation of Public Policy Analysis in Times of Crisis – A Microsimulation-Nowcasting Method Using Big Data," IZA Discussion Papers 15937, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Matteo Richiardi & Ross E. Richardson, 2017. "JAS-mine: A new platform for microsimulation and agent-based modelling," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 10(1), pages 106-134.
    17. Sandner, Malte & Jungmann, Tanja, 2017. "Gender-specific effects of early childhood intervention: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 59-78.
    18. Jocelyn Wikle & Riley Wilson, 2023. "Access to Head Start and Maternal Labor Supply: Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Evidence," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41(4), pages 1081-1127.
    19. Deniz Karaoglan & Serap Sagir & Meltem Dayioglu & Durdane Sirin Saracoglu, 2023. "The Impact of Maternal Education on Early Childhood Development: The Case of Turkey," Working Papers 2023-02, Gebze Technical University, Department of Economics.
    20. Vilsa E. Curto & Roland G. Fryer Jr., 2014. "The Potential of Urban Boarding Schools for the Poor: Evidence from SEED," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 65-93.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Childhood; policy; reading; conduct problems; health service use.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijm:journl:v:8:y:2015:i:2:p:28-60. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jinjing Li (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.microsimulation.org/ijm/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.