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International real interest rate differentials, purchasing power parity and the behaviour of real exchange rates: the resolution of a conundrum

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  • Mark P. Taylor

    (University of Warwick, and Centre for Economic Policy Research, UK)

  • Lucio Sarno

    (University of Warwick, and Centre for Economic Policy Research, UK)

Abstract

According to one strand of the international finance literature, market efficiency implies that the real exchange rate follows a martingale process, in direct conflict with the long-run absolute purchasing power parity hypothesis, which requires a stationary real exchange rate process. This conflict between market efficiency and long-run PPP appears as something of a conundrum. We resolve this conundrum by relaxing the assumption of a constant real interest rate differential and analysing the vector equilibrium correction system linking prices and the exchange rate, and draw out the economic intuition of our result. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 9 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 15-23

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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:9:y:2004:i:1:p:15-23

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  1. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
  2. Mark, Nelson C. & Choi, Doo-Yull, 1997. "Real exchange-rate prediction over long horizons," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 29-60, August.
  3. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
  4. Abuaf, Niso & Jorion, Philippe, 1990. " Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 157-74, March.
  5. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
  6. Richard H. Clarida & Mark P. Taylor, 1997. "The Term Structure Of Forward Exchange Premiums And The Forecastability Of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting The Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(3), pages 353-361, August.
  7. Mussa, Michael, 1979. "Empirical regularities in the behavior of exchange rates and theories of the foreign exchange market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 9-57, January.
  8. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2000. "On cross-country differences in the persistence of real exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 375-397, April.
  9. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September.
  10. Mark, Nelson C, 1985. "A Note on International Real Interest Rate Differentials," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 681-84, November.
  11. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," NBER Working Papers 10607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Su, Chi-Wei & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Liu, Lin, 2012. "Real interest rate parity with Flexible Fourier stationary test for Central and Eastern European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2719-2723.
  3. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.
  4. Kenneth W. Clements & Yihui Lan, 2005. "How Long is the Long Run? Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 05-03, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  5. Liu, Lin & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei & Jiang, Chun, 2013. "Real interest rate parity in East Asian countries based on China with flexible Fourier stationary test," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 52-58.
  6. McMillan, David G., 2009. "The confusing time-series behaviour of real exchange rates: Are asymmetries important?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 692-711, October.
  7. Liu, Yan & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei, 2013. "Do real interest rates converge across East Asian countries based on China?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 467-473.
  8. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Barry Harrison, 2009. "Further evidence on the Real Interest Rate Parity hypothesis in Central and Eastern European Countries: unit roots and nonlinearities," Working Papers 2009/1, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
  9. Minford, Patrick & Peel, David, 2005. "On the equality of Real Interest Rates across borders in Integrated Capital Markets," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2005/3, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  10. Robert Sollis & Mark E. Wohar, 2006. "The real exchange rate-real interest rate relation: evidence from tests for symmetric and asymmetric threshold cointegration," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 139-153.

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