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International real interest rate differentials, purchasing power parity and the behaviour of real exchange rates: the resolution of a conundrum

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Author Info
Mark P. Taylor (University of Warwick, and Centre for Economic Policy Research, UK)
Lucio Sarno (University of Warwick, and Centre for Economic Policy Research, UK)

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Abstract

According to one strand of the international finance literature, market efficiency implies that the real exchange rate follows a martingale process, in direct conflict with the long-run absolute purchasing power parity hypothesis, which requires a stationary real exchange rate process. This conflict between market efficiency and long-run PPP appears as something of a conundrum. We resolve this conundrum by relaxing the assumption of a constant real interest rate differential and analysing the vector equilibrium correction system linking prices and the exchange rate, and draw out the economic intuition of our result. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/ijfe.232
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 9 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 15-23
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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:9:y:2004:i:1:p:15-23

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Abuaf, Niso & Jorion, Philippe, 1990. " Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 157-74, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
  4. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Mussa, Michael, 1979. "Empirical regularities in the behavior of exchange rates and theories of the foreign exchange market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 9-57, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
  7. Mark, Nelson C, 1985. "A Note on International Real Interest Rate Differentials," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 681-84, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Mark, Nelson C. & Choi, Doo-Yull, 1997. "Real exchange-rate prediction over long horizons," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 29-60, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Richard H. Clarida & Mark P. Taylor, 1997. "The Term Structure Of Forward Exchange Premiums And The Forecastability Of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting The Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(3), pages 353-361, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2000. "On cross-country differences in the persistence of real exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 375-397, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Minford, Patrick & Peel, David, 2005. "On the equality of Real Interest Rates across borders in Integrated Capital Markets," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2005/3, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Barry Harrison, 2009. "Further evidence on the Real Interest Rate Parity hypothesis in Central and Eastern European Countries: unit roots and nonlinearities," Working Papers 2009/1, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kenneth W. Clements & Yihui Lan, 2005. "How Long is the Long Run? Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 05-03, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Robert Sollis & Mark E. Wohar, 2006. "The real exchange rate-real interest rate relation: evidence from tests for symmetric and asymmetric threshold cointegration," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 139-153. [Downloadable!]
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