The real exchange rate-real interest rate relation: evidence from tests for symmetric and asymmetric threshold cointegration
AbstractThis paper investigates the existence of threshold cointegration between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials. Unlike previous work, which generally fails to find evidence of a long-run relationship employing linear models, we employ tests of the null hypothesis of no cointegration derived from nonlinear bivariate models that allow for threshold cointegration under the alternative hypothesis. For six of the countries in our sample our analysis reveals some evidence of a nonlinear long-run relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials. Asymmetric mean reversion of the equilibrium error is found to be driven by the asymmetric short-run adjustment of the real exchange rate to dis-equilibrium. When threshold cointegration is found to exist, we find stronger mean reversion when the equilibrium error is negative relative to when it is positive. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.
Volume (Year): 11 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Coughlin, C.C. & Koedijk, C.G., 1990.
"What do we know about the long run real exchange rate?,"
Open Access publications from Tilburg University
urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3108738, Tilburg University.
- Cletus C. Coughlin & Kees Koedijk, 1990. "What do we know about the long-run real exchange rate?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 36-48.
- Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995.
"Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates,"
Handbook of International Economics,
in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688
- Ken Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, . "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," Working Paper 32027, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1983.
"Exchange rate dynamics with sluggish prices under alternative price- adjustment rules,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
223, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1984. "Exchange Rate Dynamics with Sluggish Prices under Alternative Price-Adjustment Rules," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 159-74, February.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1983. "Exchange Rate Dynamics With Sluggish Prices Under Alternative Price-Adjustment Rules," NBER Working Papers 1173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Caner,M. & Hansen,B.E., 1998.
"Threshold autoregression with a near unit root,"
27, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Meese, Richard A & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1988.
" Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation over the Modern Floating-Rate Period,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 933-48, September.
- Meese, R. & Rogoff, K., 1988. "Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Ralation Over The Modern Floating-Rate Period," Working papers 368, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Uppal, Raman, 1993. " A General Equilibrium Model of International Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 529-53, June.
- O'Connell, P. G. J., 1998. "Market frictions and real exchange rates1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 71-95, February.
- Al-Awad, Mouawiya & Grennes, Thomas J., 2002. "Real interest parity and transaction costs for the group of 10 countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 363-372.
- James G. MacKinnon, 2010.
"Critical Values for Cointegration Tests,"
1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 1997.
"The Behaviour of Real Exchange Rates During the Post-Bretton Woods Period,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1730, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Taylor, Mark P. & Sarno, Lucio, 1998. "The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-312, December.
- Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1998.
"Real exchange rates under the recent float: unequivocal evidence of mean reversion,"
Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 131-137, August.
- Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, . "Real Exchange Rates under the Recent Float: Unequivocal Evidence of Mean Reversion," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 97-14, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- Mark, Nelson C & Wu, Yangru, 1998.
"Rethinking Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: The Role of Covariance Risk and Noise,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(451), pages 1686-1706, November.
- Nelson Mark & Yangru Wu, 1998. "Rethinking Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: The Role of Covariance Risk and Noise," Working Papers 98-05, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
- Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L, 2002.
"The Dynamic Relationship Between the Federal Funds rate and the Treasury Bill Rate: An Empirical Investigation,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3225, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L., 2003. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: An empirical investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1079-1110, June.
- Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: an empirical investigation," Working Papers 2000-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
- Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "International real interest rate differentials, purchasing power parity and the behaviour of real exchange rates: the resolution of a conundrum," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 15-23.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002.
"Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen/Seo paper on threshold cointegration," Statistical Software Components RTZ00092, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Li, Kui-Wai & Wong, Douglas K T, 2011. "The Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Differential Relationship: Evidence from Two Financial Crises," MPRA Paper 35297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Mendonca, Gui Pedro, 2008. "Structural Breaks, Regime Change and Asymmetric Adjustment: A Short and Long Run Global Approach to the Output/Unemployment Dynamics," MPRA Paper 14648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hsing, Yu, 2009. "Analysis of the Behavior of the New Zealand Dollar Exchange Rate: Comparison of Four Major Models," Review of Applied Economics, Review of Applied Economics, vol. 5(1-2).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.